1 weak of betting….and now am leaving

Hllo guys…….I started my journey 1 week ago but currently at -35% of initial capital….i did not have a single day of profit in seven days….so now am leaving this product because dont want to lose all of my capital……if the loss was 10-20 % then i would somehow manage to bet full month ….but now too scared to bet anymore……it works for some people and also dont works for some……
I am not saying this that this product is vain but in fact the promotion team of this product should also write the fact that on your first 1000 bets….there is probably 30 % chances that you will be in lose….means 30 people out of 100……and 10 % chances that you lose your 90 % bankroll at the end of 1000 bets……but yes the more(greater then 1000) you bet the less the chances of loss would follow…if i know this at starting i would definitely thought about it more …….i can go to the 1000 bets but also dont want to be in those 10% people🥲………but the promotion team should make this precaution on there product clearly that yes there is chances to make profit but also lose ……those who are at + side……keep making profit

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Share your filters and settings, etc.

They all are normal….

I see one major issue. You don’t have adjust for open bets checked. If you do this without a high bankroll, you can run into short term variance and go broke. The reason you check this is to have your capital always being adjusted based upon the Kelly Criterion. If you are just starting out, I recommend using 30% with this checked and only use 1% max until you feel comfortable. Too many people start out with a high max percentage 2% or more with all the money they have. No one says you have to use all your bankroll to start. Put half or 1/4 of all your money on play knowing you can call upon more if necessary. Psychologically this can give you peace of mind. You need to be in this for the long run. Short term variance happens but math always wins in the end!

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Its helpful buddy……thanks for your time and your suggestion…….how much you think open bet adjustment will help or have a good impact….because it decreases your stake after after 30-40 bets so much ….as like hafh of the actual stake

The main impact is that it will limit your bankroll proportionally to what you have at risk at all times. Your stakes will go down after like 30-40 bets but that is the point. You were concerned with the potential to go broke, and this will never happen with this checked and proper management like I told you about. If you give it like 1000-2000 bets it will work out. You just need to be more patience. I just went through a recent 2 week patch and was down like 25-30 big bets and now I am swinging back up in about a week. There is good and bad variance by math always wins. Take your time and start small and learn how this work and get more confident with the approach and then see if you can handle the swings and sleep at night. If you can’t sleep at night with what you have at risk, you are probably risking too much at the current time.

wow thats actually pretty good :rofl: :joy:

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Share your stats brother

@OCR2016 What is the logic behind proportionally decreasing the stake with more open bets? That would mean that bets I place later on in a day have less value, just because I have already some money down in the open bets. Doesn’t make much sense tbh.

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You are correct. It does proportionately decrease your amount won in value per bet, but it also decreases your risk proportional to your total bankroll.

He was concerned about going broke, so using a Kelly strategy will help him to gain confidence in the overall system slowly without going broke.

If bankroll is not a issue, then don’t check adjust for open bets to maximize your value won per bet. Personally, I adjust my bet size if the bet is 5% or higher and place this closer to my big bet amount no matter how much I have at risk because I am comfortable with the process and bankroll is really not an issue at this point.

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IMHO the biggest issue I see is that you have the min value set to 3%.
The average CLV will always be lower than your +EV.
image
In my screenshot you can see that my avg. CLV is 3.57% while my betting EV average is 6.00%.
Only after I adjusted my min value to 3.5, and higher, I started go get positive results…
Regarding the staking… I do not like the “adjust for open bets”. You will be betting peanuts towards the end of your bankroll. You should put your whole bankroll to work and the Kelly will help you to do that. Make sure that your bankroll is adjusted for any profits/losses; set the Kelly to 20% and put down the bets until your whole bankroll is working. If there are many bets select a shorter time horizon. Better to put a 4% bet in one hour than to put a 5% bet in 10 hours.

Also check around in the different postings. You are not the first one with a bad start (I actually had a horrible start, half my bankroll was lost after two weeks). There is plenty of advice in different threads to help members maximize their betts.
Good luck.

It’s not your settings or anything of the sort. This is a scam.

I’m a semi pro punter, my twitter is football Value trader. These bets are all - EV.

Its guess work relying on the law of large numbers. It spits out various predictions for the one match and inevitably most will lose but some will be lucky and choose more right than wrong and this will be attributed to skill rather than blind luck. Don’t be fooled

Ha-ha… You must be a Troll.
Nothing of what you wrote makes sense and nothing of what you are trying to peddle should be trusted.