Help me fix this hot garbage of a graph. What is happening here? Variance?
Make another 1000 bets and lets see then.
Most likely just bad luck-if there is such a thing.
Good example how important is money management.
what are your settings? Max stake? Kelly? Odds? Value? For start is ideal 30%kelly,Max stake 1%, odds 1.3-3.1, value 1.2-10. and more bets.
What bookmakers are you using?
I really won’t recommend value betting on Betfair unless you know what you’re doing. They are considered sharp.
I’m losing huge amounts even ignoring Betfair…
A -0.8% yield after 2700 bets on Bet365 is unusual for our customers, but not statistically significant when you consider your average odds of 2.12.
The p-value is 0.69, this means there is a 69% chance you’d get these results when betting randomly on these average odds.
But you also need to consider the margin of Bet365. If you were truly betting randomly on Bet365, you would get an average of -6% yield over time, which is their margin. If we include this margin in the calculation, it actually turns statistically significant.
I have plans to write a longer article about this. And also add a calculator so you can play around with the numbers.
For now, have patience and trust in the law of large numbers.
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