Afternoon all, has any one done any direct comparisons on fixed vs variable staking? (literally like for like on the same bet) im running a little experiment with a gubbed account to see if there is a noticable benefit. Nice to know if anyone else has 5ried it.
If anyone is interested, i downloaded my data so far and ran the numbers with a fixed stake of £30 (1% of bank roll) rather than 30% Kel and 1.5% bank roll with variable stakes. Over my completed (no pending) bets it changed profit from £1202 to £2709. I wanted to look at this because ive hit a bit of a flat spot and i think it is because my premium bets (early on) of the day are not paying off while the ligher bets are. So ill run this for the next 1000 or so bets and see if it pans out again into september.
so , in your opinion, your betting results would have been better with fixed stake, rather than using Kelly staking method ?
I am asking because I am new in this, and want to start placing some value bets also, but I was asking myself the same question : What staking method would be best, Kelly, or just fixed stakes.
@poison17 Im still pretty new to all of this and based on my data fixed stake was definitely better than variable by more than double. However, i started on variable first, so that i had some data to test as i figured that it was safest.
My thoughts on the mater are that in the long run, it would probably even out and both strategies would profit about the same. I had a big initial spike to about £2.4k profit very quickly (under a month) and then a painful drop down to £1.1k and then flat lined for a bit at £1.3k. It looked like the issue was that my early bets at 1.5% of bank weren’t doing well and my later bets that had been reduced were winning. This is without doubt just chance and if i pushed onto 10000 bets im sure that those early bets would swing back. But i found that bad for my mindset. Now that i am using fixed bets there are still ups and downs, but the swing is less and the initial results are more of a steady climb.
Don’t go balls deep though. I am at 1% of bank. So that allows me to get 100 bets on a Saturday. You need as many bets as possible rather than a few big bets.