Low season results

Hi Guys,

The red Arrows shows the start of a much higher variance for mer. This appeared when the summer began and all the big football Leagues ended.

It looks like June will be my first loosing month since i started with valuebetting.

I’m just curious if you guys have noticed a higher variance/drawdown during the summer?

As you can see during the first 2/3 of the graph everything went “smoother” with small variance and just 2 ups and downs. The last part (marked with red Arrows) shows really big variance its like a rollercoster.

I’m thinking that smaller Leagues/markets and friendlies might give us this crazy variance?

I have used the exact same settings from the beginning.
Total bets: 2.000 >
Max stake: 1.5%
Kelly: 30%
Value: 1.1% >
Odds: 1,3 - 3,5

Let us discuss this and see if we can do something to improve :slight_smile: (if it isn’t just me)


Hi Maatthew,

Any better progress here? I just started couple days ago and now 91 bets behind (not enough I know) and it seems more I bet more I lose and I’m feeling the same way. Is it just the low season or I would need more practice which bets to choose or would it be wise to wait for bigger leagues to start?

This is my my situation. Every day worst

Just have to be pragmatic in the low season.

Value betting is still betting unlike arbs and surebets so usually the profit to loss takes a while

if you are finishing in the season in a profit/breakeven i would stay stop take a break until at least the football season starts or another regular sport event.

If you continue during the low season and there is a continual downward push take a stock check or break and cut your loses as you want to keep as much in your bank for when the season kicks off again.

Hi… what you mean the season kicks off again?

For the UK the major sporting season is football which kicks off in August
There is a lot more value and games taking place from August onwards for europeans.

The international are often covered by the sport books which are extremely quick at changing the odds so the value bet is lower or not really there to help offset the failed bets.

When looking for value the information is sourced from the major asian sports books which change quickly compared to the general bookies, in addition the available statistics to generate the variable of the likely outcome compared to the odds for betting is more widely available. so rebel betting can provided stronger and wider range of bets.

Generally if you are going to push and get the best diversity of sporting events there are personal changes you have to make to link up when particular sporting season start and what part of the world they start. so the time you are using rebel betting.

Some of the big value comes right before the start of event e.g football (soccer) the value odds are just 30 minutes before as the bookies will rapidly change the odds once the confirmation of players is released the asian sports books do this the quickest.

The slowest are the betting sites which are gambling partner (white label gambling sites)

So you suggest me to stop my account end restart after August.

Suggest two things

  1. pause
  2. use rebel betting at different time e.g midnight onwards to get the international games (search google for sporting seasons and then you will find out where they are and ca . adjust your time)

If you don’t want to do this you’ll have a lot of open betts because your range for last bet

Realistically if your EV is positive you should be ok because that is the expect value over time and it should catch up with more betts being run

Plus there have been a few updates due to bookies making changes which could have delayed some value bets

Thank you for your suggestions. It is very helpful. I try to change the time when I use rebel betting .Thanks so much

Hi, the EV is of course positive :slight_smile:

I have done some adjustments and i only place around 10 bets a day since my last post, that have helped me a lot. I’m back to all time high now.
The adjustments i did was to not include friendlies, U23, U21 Leagues and i only take bets with higher value despite the odds. I have run pretty well with AH and O/U markets and here i have also been taking more information about the teams and previous results for that specific team and/or League.

I Believe my track reckord is to low to actually say that it is my adjusments who have put me back on track again, but i will keep doing this until the big soccer Leagues are back again in august. Because my variance was like nothing when i placed bets on the bigger Leagues and now during the summer it has been all crazy.

I have run way better than my expected value in July. My yield is 9,66%, but i’m still far behind my expected value.

I will keep an pace of 300 bets throughout July and in august i think around 750-1000 bets might be possible.

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Hi me either did some adjustments and now seem it help me. I have deleted the market Asian handicap ana under/over. The only one drawback is that there very few value bets

@Fabiobet1 you will have to update on your progress since making changes

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Hi…in only one week I recovered the my loss of 160 euro …I arrived to 60 euro …now I’m at 5 euro. I think that my changes work well but it’s too early for singing vittory. I’ll inform you between 10 days.
Good work and good luck.

Interesting that you have hidden those markets. I perform best in AH and O/U. My biggest set backs are 1X2 bets with odds under 1.70.

I have placed around 150 bets this month with a yield slightly below 10% and with a ROI around 11%.

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@Fabiobet1 great you’ve recovered your loss and that you are breaking even

next is to start getting ready for the football (soccer) season start and you can then adjust your markets to gain the best and hopefully build a decent profit margin

Thats what am waiting for - i take out the profit start over sometimes with a larger bankroll

@Maatthew . whats your latest stats from your orginal post

I don’t know the reason but for me at the moment is the best. Maybe depend of the bookmakers that
each one use…for example I use Betclic unibet end sbobet. But anyway as I said is too early. Between 10 days I’ll show my results

Hi…yes now I’m waiting for the next football season.
So I’ll can see the real value of rebel betting .

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me too!!!1