Hi there. I’ve “crunched” the numbers of my bets (past 2500). I have around 10.000 DKK in profit, ROI of 100% - pretty good I think.
My filter is pretty simple:
30% kelly
Odds 1.20 → 3.10
48 Hours
My Yield is: 3,71%
I’ve taken all bets into Excel, and tried looking into certain ranges. Did I loose on certain values? Certain odds? Certain stake?
Not many patterns to actually use as a marker for a decision, but I have had a loss at just over 3.000,- in the odds between 2.01 and 2.19, involving 280 bets. That’s probably not enough bets to take this as actual evidence, but still - that’s 3.000 of “lost profit”.
Is there anyone else that sees the same pattern?
Note: I removed Tennis, and try to avoid womens sport as well, just due to good old experience with betting, and the fact that I lost quite a bit on Tennis in the beginning.
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Thats weird tennis works fine for me about 1000 bets at the moment. Esports works great. For me its the over under that seems to have no value? Value percentage 2.6-20 at most 12 hrs. Odds 1.4-3.1. Yield 2.4 on napoleon games
y can not put one filter for all bookies
example bet 365 doing not good in match odds but awesome in the overs on the better leagues
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What would be the best filters for unibet/napoleon?
unibet depends match odds?overs?
overs 1.5-3.6
edge 2.5 -100
hours 11
match odds 1.65-3.5
edge 2.9-100
hours 3
this is for recommend leagues
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Well, not exactly the answers I was searching. Could anyone try to take their bets into Excel (I had to copy/paste the top menu as well to make it work), and try to filter the bets with odds between 2.01 and 2.19 and see if they get the same results?
better bets overs and match odds asian handicaps looks more difficult on the most bookies… that what i saw in back testing