I tried to update my bankroll everyday, at first.
Then I notice something weird: when my bank went above a certain value, I started to lose.
Ok, maybe it was just a coincidence but… I thought about it and notice that some bookmakers topped the bets at some values. So, in some sites, i was betting my top bank value, and others I could not.
Then I tested to stop the update in one specific value, and the wins started to happen A LOT.
I know, I know, what I am saying has little math logic, but since that day, I stopped to update my bankroll…
Anyone has any opinion about it? You guys just go up till some point or you are faithful to your real bankroll?
I tried to update my bankroll everyday, at first.
Stop looking at results every 2nd bet or it will drive you crazy. Look at it max once every 100 bets.
LOL, I have 15k bets already
over what sample size did you start looking at those variables?
15k bets why arent you at a bet broker and limited on all the bookies atm?
Well, at first, it was marathon bet. blocked pretty soon. Then 1xbet lowering my odds, the sporetingbet and partypoker lowering my higher stake to just 1 dolar, then titanbet blocked my account and 888 sports too.
Ah, Betcris blocked some of my bets, not every one.
Why I am not blocked? Simple: as I am in 5 or 6 bookies, my gains are not ever in the same bookie… so they let me for some time. I made a good ammounf of money in 888sport, they got tired of me and invited me to leave… that´s ok, part of the game.
Think what you are talking is interesting. I have the same feeling. When I started uploading my bankroll, I had big looses. But if I do not care about upload my bankroll daily, the wins started to happen. Btw I am not sure about when to stop uploading my bank. Now is 1600 and I want it to increase till 3000-4000 then stop it. So don’t know if upload it daily or just when I reach good benefits (100% ROI)…any advice @enki7?
I have no idea. In my case, it was try and error. But there is something linked to bookies that lowers your bets.
So, 365 usually aceppt the max… but LeoVegas, 888, 10Bet sometimes diminishe them.
I got my “sweet spot” by chance… but it makes no sense mathmatically.
Maybe someone with the dev team can understand better.
AH, I have something to cheer you up: doing at least 30 bets per day, 100% ROI is easily done… or I am the luckiest guy around.
I think I´ve got with 1.5 months. They usually say 3 months, but you can get earlier.
Try to choose 5 bookies, with “different range” of bets. Bookies that does not “overlap” the types of bets.
It is variance and recency bias. Because your most recent bets after wins (and increasing your bankroll respectively) are largest, the loses are largest.
You will, on average, make significantly more if you update your bankroll to reflect what you’re comfortable losing. Update your bankroll daily, up or down, that’s how you make the most and reduce your risk of ruin.
If you’re concerned about variance you can reduce your Kelly %. At 100% Kelly you have a 50% chance of losing 50% of your bankroll. Vs that… at 50% kelly your EV will be reduced by 25% and your risk of a temporary loss reduced by a quadratic function, ie 25% chance of losing 50%. At 25% Kelly your EV will be halved and you’ll have a 6.25% chance of losing 50% (quartic).
Over the long run, at some point, everyone will go on awfully bad downswings. It is guaranteed. There is no way of avoiding it. Mentally prepare for the fact that eventually you will downswing 30, 40, 50% of your bankroll. That might be now, it might be when you have a 50k bankroll, it might be both.
Thanks for the advices. Great info indeed!
What do you think of bookies that lower your stakes, as 888 and LeoVegas, sometimes betsson… do you think they interfere with you soft bets? Should I change to others?
In LeoVegas, the diminished value is big… sometimes to 10% of the kelly criterion bet
There are two main parts to sports betting. Finding opportunities and getting money bet. Rebel has taken care of the first part. The second part is an art. Find any way possible to keep doors open. And when eventually one door closes, go in through the window.
Look into brokers.
Are any of the brokers feasible for UK customers, when the bookies start shutting you down? Can you recommend any? I had been going along nicely til Sporting and Hills (my main two) severely limited me. Bet365 and 10bet have been keeping me going since, but I am guessing that will have its shelf-life too. The fact that I had been mug betting with bet365 for so many years might help me with that, at least.
10Bet just blocked me today. I hope at least they give me the money Titanbet and 888 are laughing at me face for 1 month now.
I think it would be good if the software try to include more outside europe bookies, cause they are open to europe and almost every country.
The asians are good for this, but the odds changes too fast.
Asianconnect (AsianOdds) is the only broker I’ve managed to find that is feasible for UK customers, I can vouch for them. They offer bookies like Pinnacle, 188bet (Singbet), 3et, BETISN, Penta88 & SBO. All with v high limits, excluding SBO. Bit of a ball ache setting up an account & depositing but once you’re on and verified it’s easy. Integration with rebelbetting is in the pipeline I think as well so bodes well.
Ah thanks for that mate, I will have a look at them then