Unusual but interesting!

1

I’d really like to hear RebelBetting staffs opinion on this, but also from anyone with an opinion on this, with a motivation.

Today i got caught up in a dilemma, which i found quite interesting:

Tennis - I place a valuebet on Player A @ 2.10.
A few hours later the odds changes to 1.80 for player A, and 2.00 for player B.
This is great, because it strenghtens my Value in the bet made earlier. And at the same time it also gives me an arbitrage opportunity.

So here’s the question:

For best EV, Should I just be happy with the laid bet on player A @ 2.10 with 4,11% value or, should I go for a small but guaranteed surebet with ROI: 2,44%?
Problem with the surebet is that the profit will be very small since I can’t stake more on player A. Although I think 2,44% is a decent ROI for an arb?

2

when you value bet, you dont bet big as you arbing.
so if i met this kind of case:

  1. i place more than 1000 bet per month, so i will not check any arb opportunity (i do check some match to know which way odds move)
  2. my valuebet stake size is different with arb, so when you first place a VALUE bet stake, i just think its too small to take profit on arb because we are using 30% kelly with 1-2% bankroll maxbet

But as you said, 4.11% value vs 2.44% arb is making dilemma
have you correctly check the true odds to get your exact 4.11% value?
if the pinny odds is 1.80-2.00, player A bet @2.10 = 10.5% EV