1000 bet progress
Sharing my first post on here as my 1000th bet has just settled and wanted to share my experience with the software so far for any prospective subscribers or anyone that is interested.
Bit of background first about myself and how I got into value betting: I am a 22 year old living in the UK and have been successfully matched betting as a hobby for almost a year now, I initially joined Rebelbetting as I was interested in the arbitrage service, but thought I’d give the value betting service a shot after seeing their 2 months for the price of 1 offer. Because of COVID, I have been WFH for nearly 2.5 months now, giving me plenty of extra spare time. Obviously, since COVID-19, the matched betting opportunities have dried up, so I really had nothing else to do in my spare time except work & play Hearthstone. So, I was looking around for other opportunities to pursue in the betting/investing field which led me to Rebelbettings value betting service toward the end of May (20th May is when I started).
So far, I have been very pleased with the value betting service. Since I started using it, I have not changed from the default settings once (as recommended by the guides and some posts in the forum). My settings are as follows:
Max Stake: 2%
Min Odds: 1.2
Max Odds: 3.10
Min Value: 2%
Max Value: 99%
Time to match start: 12 hours
I wanted to avoid chopping and changing the settings too much (or at least not until I hit 1000 bets), since your results aren’t really statistically relevant until there’s a few 1000 bets with it (as explained in many posts on here before). In my experience, if you’re just starting out, I’d recommend not touching the default settings at all until a few 1000 bets in or unless something is going drastically wrong. The only thing I would recommend changing is the bookmaker rounding. To be honest, I don’t know why the stake rounding isn’t 0.01 by default, but if you haven’t already, you should change the rounding to 0.01 for all your bookmaker stakes. It’s a small difference, but in the long term it will increase your efficiency, allowing you to squeeze out the most value from your bets. I don’t see any upside/advantage to not having it rounded to 0.01, if anyone does, let me know in comments. I cannot remember if max value is set to 99% by default or not but I see a lot of other people limiting it to 10% or 20%, probably because they have higher bankroll than mine since the higher the value the higher the stake on average due to Kelly criterion. So maybe their stakes have been limited on certain bookies. But if you’re starting on a low bankroll, it won’t hurt to put the max value up to 99%, after all, more value = more profit in the long run. I also haven’t limited anything in terms of sports or markets, placing as many bets on as many sports/markets as I can.
Take a look at my results in my first 1000 bets below. If you have the time, I’d recommend logging your bets on your own spreadsheet as I have. This is because it’s good to have a backup but also since I have been adding the Rebelbetting value bets to my matched betting spreadsheet and comparing profits between them. Another reason is that you cannot get a full graph of every bet you placed on the value betting web version, for some reason you can only see it by day or week. This would be great if you could download the graph that breaks down by each bet as well as by day & week in the reports section.
(EDIT: Marathonbet.co.uk yield should read 7.41% not -22.90%)
As you can see from my first 1000 bets, I have luckily not had to deal with too many downswings, if at all any. I try to aim for an average 40 bets a day since I have the time and can place & log the bets alongside WFH.
I’ve used 17 different bookies since I started, mostly the ones that are popular & available in the UK such as Coral, WilliamHill, Bet365, 10bet etc. This may only apply to UK readers, but in my experience, the strictest bookies when it comes to restricting stakes are Unibet, 888sport, 32red & LeoVegas. I think these 4 bookies fall under the same umbrella company or operator (Kindred Group plc) since their odds show up the same on the value finder and they are all very quick to start ‘ sending off your odds to be accepted’ usually after around 2 days. I’ve also been restricted on Sportingbet, Bwin, Marathonbet, WilliamHill & Betfred, bearing in mind this is all within a month of value betting. With Marathonbet, I am still able to bet on more popular markets with higher liquidity, thankfully my stakes aren’t restricted as much on those like they are on the smaller markets (usually £5 tops).
Luckily enough, I am used to being restricted by bookies due to my background in matched betting, so I have several friends who have let me open accounts in their name, so I have multiple accounts at my disposal. Some of the nicer, less strict bookies I’ve experienced include: 10bet, Boylesports, Bet365, Coral, Novibet & WilliamHill. Although I’ve been restricted on one of my WilliamHill accounts it’s actually not that bad considering the amount I’ve turned over/profited from them. If anyone could recommend any other good bookies to get onto that are available in the UK, I would be very grateful.
If you’re considering starting value betting with Rebelbetting I don’t see a better time than now to start, since sport is just starting to come back, most of us are still in lockdown with the spare time and you can take advantage of the current 2 months for 1 offer. I’d recommend reading posts on the forum & researching to see if it’s right for you, the content on Rebelbetting’s website is quite useful and Hanna from CS is very helpful.
It would be great to see some more mainstream UK bookies offered on the service such as Skybet or the Betfair Sportsbook.
I would also like to know people’s opinions the scalability/longevity of the value betting service and if anyone has been making a considerable amount of profit from it for a long period of time or if anyone is even making a living from it. I can see this service as a decent short-term option of investment but not one that’s really sustainable/scalable in the long term, considering I’ve been doing this now for less than a month and have already been restricted on numerous sites. I plan on doing this for as long as possible until I’m either banned from all available bookies or it stops being profitable. I’m intrigued by how brokers work and if they may be worth considering in the future. The frustration I have with matched betting is that it’s even less scalable than value betting. I’ve dabbled in sport trading over the past few months and plan to expand my knowledge there in the future, since the scalability is limitless, however the risk is large, and the knowledge/practice required is even larger.
Are voided bets counted in the total turnover? Since you’ve technically got a refund on your stake, should this be discounted from the turnover and therefore effect your yield?
Are there plans to add Horse Racing to the value betting software in the future?
Is there any advantage to having your stakes rounded to anything other than 0.01?
Is there any advantage to having your max value set to anything other than 99%?
As for now, I think I will stick to my current settings, until at least 2000 bets, since ‘ if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. ’ I’d love to hear any tips or q’s if you have any, in the replies. I may do a follow up at 2000 bets to check in on progress.
Hope you enjoyed reading- apologies for the essay,