1000 Bet Progress

[tomrrowe]

1000 bet progress

Hi All,

Sharing my first post on here as my 1000th bet has just settled and wanted to share my experience with the software so far for any prospective subscribers or anyone that is interested.

Background

Bit of background first about myself and how I got into value betting: I am a 22 year old living in the UK and have been successfully matched betting as a hobby for almost a year now, I initially joined Rebelbetting as I was interested in the arbitrage service, but thought I’d give the value betting service a shot after seeing their 2 months for the price of 1 offer. Because of COVID, I have been WFH for nearly 2.5 months now, giving me plenty of extra spare time. Obviously, since COVID-19, the matched betting opportunities have dried up, so I really had nothing else to do in my spare time except work & play Hearthstone. So, I was looking around for other opportunities to pursue in the betting/investing field which led me to Rebelbettings value betting service toward the end of May (20th May is when I started).

Settings

So far, I have been very pleased with the value betting service. Since I started using it, I have not changed from the default settings once (as recommended by the guides and some posts in the forum). My settings are as follows:

Kelly: 30%

Max Stake: 2%

Min Odds: 1.2

Max Odds: 3.10

Min Value: 2%

Max Value: 99%

Time to match start: 12 hours

I wanted to avoid chopping and changing the settings too much (or at least not until I hit 1000 bets), since your results aren’t really statistically relevant until there’s a few 1000 bets with it (as explained in many posts on here before). In my experience, if you’re just starting out, I’d recommend not touching the default settings at all until a few 1000 bets in or unless something is going drastically wrong. The only thing I would recommend changing is the bookmaker rounding. To be honest, I don’t know why the stake rounding isn’t 0.01 by default, but if you haven’t already, you should change the rounding to 0.01 for all your bookmaker stakes. It’s a small difference, but in the long term it will increase your efficiency, allowing you to squeeze out the most value from your bets. I don’t see any upside/advantage to not having it rounded to 0.01, if anyone does, let me know in comments. I cannot remember if max value is set to 99% by default or not but I see a lot of other people limiting it to 10% or 20%, probably because they have higher bankroll than mine since the higher the value the higher the stake on average due to Kelly criterion. So maybe their stakes have been limited on certain bookies. But if you’re starting on a low bankroll, it won’t hurt to put the max value up to 99%, after all, more value = more profit in the long run. I also haven’t limited anything in terms of sports or markets, placing as many bets on as many sports/markets as I can.

Results

Take a look at my results in my first 1000 bets below. If you have the time, I’d recommend logging your bets on your own spreadsheet as I have. This is because it’s good to have a backup but also since I have been adding the Rebelbetting value bets to my matched betting spreadsheet and comparing profits between them. Another reason is that you cannot get a full graph of every bet you placed on the value betting web version, for some reason you can only see it by day or week. This would be great if you could download the graph that breaks down by each bet as well as by day & week in the reports section.

(EDIT: Marathonbet.co.uk yield should read 7.41% not -22.90%)

As you can see from my first 1000 bets, I have luckily not had to deal with too many downswings, if at all any. I try to aim for an average 40 bets a day since I have the time and can place & log the bets alongside WFH.

Bookmakers

I’ve used 17 different bookies since I started, mostly the ones that are popular & available in the UK such as Coral, WilliamHill, Bet365, 10bet etc. This may only apply to UK readers, but in my experience, the strictest bookies when it comes to restricting stakes are Unibet, 888sport, 32red & LeoVegas. I think these 4 bookies fall under the same umbrella company or operator (Kindred Group plc) since their odds show up the same on the value finder and they are all very quick to start ‘ sending off your odds to be accepted’ usually after around 2 days. I’ve also been restricted on Sportingbet, Bwin, Marathonbet, WilliamHill & Betfred, bearing in mind this is all within a month of value betting. With Marathonbet, I am still able to bet on more popular markets with higher liquidity, thankfully my stakes aren’t restricted as much on those like they are on the smaller markets (usually £5 tops).

Luckily enough, I am used to being restricted by bookies due to my background in matched betting, so I have several friends who have let me open accounts in their name, so I have multiple accounts at my disposal. Some of the nicer, less strict bookies I’ve experienced include: 10bet, Boylesports, Bet365, Coral, Novibet & WilliamHill. Although I’ve been restricted on one of my WilliamHill accounts it’s actually not that bad considering the amount I’ve turned over/profited from them. If anyone could recommend any other good bookies to get onto that are available in the UK, I would be very grateful.

Conclusion

If you’re considering starting value betting with Rebelbetting I don’t see a better time than now to start, since sport is just starting to come back, most of us are still in lockdown with the spare time and you can take advantage of the current 2 months for 1 offer. I’d recommend reading posts on the forum & researching to see if it’s right for you, the content on Rebelbetting’s website is quite useful and Hanna from CS is very helpful.

It would be great to see some more mainstream UK bookies offered on the service such as Skybet or the Betfair Sportsbook.

I would also like to know people’s opinions the scalability/longevity of the value betting service and if anyone has been making a considerable amount of profit from it for a long period of time or if anyone is even making a living from it. I can see this service as a decent short-term option of investment but not one that’s really sustainable/scalable in the long term, considering I’ve been doing this now for less than a month and have already been restricted on numerous sites. I plan on doing this for as long as possible until I’m either banned from all available bookies or it stops being profitable. I’m intrigued by how brokers work and if they may be worth considering in the future. The frustration I have with matched betting is that it’s even less scalable than value betting. I’ve dabbled in sport trading over the past few months and plan to expand my knowledge there in the future, since the scalability is limitless, however the risk is large, and the knowledge/practice required is even larger.

Questions

Are voided bets counted in the total turnover? Since you’ve technically got a refund on your stake, should this be discounted from the turnover and therefore effect your yield?

Are there plans to add Horse Racing to the value betting software in the future?

Is there any advantage to having your stakes rounded to anything other than 0.01?

Is there any advantage to having your max value set to anything other than 99%?

As for now, I think I will stick to my current settings, until at least 2000 bets, since ‘ if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. ’ I’d love to hear any tips or q’s if you have any, in the replies. I may do a follow up at 2000 bets to check in on progress.

Hope you enjoyed reading- apologies for the essay,

Tom

[Colefer_270]

Hey, I have one issue with 0.01 rounding. Isn’t it the fastest way to be limited at softbookies??

[tomrrowe]

I’ve never heard that before, but that could be a reason. Why do bookies not like people using exact stakes?

[Bandit]

Rounding to 0,01 would be a big mistake, thats like telling them that you are using a value or sure bet software.

[lpalmieri]

Hi, only mine is rubbish I don t know what I am doing wrong.

[Club]

Hello, I have a question as I just started using the value betting. I’m in the U.S. so I can’t use as many books as you guys so i don’t have as many value bets pop up. My question is, do you make the bet as soon as the value bet pops up or do you wait to see if it stays around? I’ve had several bets pop up but then they disappear after several minutes. Should I bet everything that pops up or is there a reason to wait? Also, does it matter how close the bet is to the starting time?

[tomrrowe]

I personally click through to the bet as soon as it pops up. I think most of the time the reason the bets pop up and go is because of sharp bookies changing their odds frequently. However, I only place the bet at the odds where the value falls in my range (<2%). It’s best to place closer to the event start time IMO.

[Club]

Thanks for the response. I’ve just been watching today. I guess I’ll start tomorrow and bet whatever pops up at a value of better than 2%. When you say it’s best to bet closer to the event start time, do you mean within an hour or 3 hours, or something else? Thanks.

[Hanna]

Hi there,

Regarding your previous questions,

“Is there any advantage to having your max value set to anything other than 99%?”

Betting on higher value will on average increase your yield, and give you a larger buffer against shifting odds. But very high value bets has a small, but increased risk of mismatched data from the bookmakers. Luckily, this happens very rarely, and one wrong bet won’t make much of a difference in your profits curve anyway.

Regarding horse racing value bets - we have no plans of adding horse racing value bets in the near future, but perhaps later on. Time will tell!

And regarding rounding,
Yes, I suggest that you should try to round your bets as best as you can. You can also choose different roundings on different bookmakers.

regards
Hanna

[okwycash]

I downloaded rebel betting today but don’t know why I couldn’t be able to register. Saying that I should contact support. Do anybody know the reason.

[Hanna]

Hi, Please email support@rebelbetting.com or contact me on our website chat and I’ll assist.

[tomrrowe]

2000 Bet Progress

Thought I’d check in again after another 1000 bets! Please find my results below

Since I last posted I have lost access on all my accounts with Coral and William Hill. This was mostly through my wrongdoing after not taking heed to the advice given regarding the rounding and VPN’s. I’m still losing accounts left right and centre so my average bets per day has slowly decreased. As you can see from the results, this 1000 bets have been a bit slower than the first 1000 however the trend is still upward for now. I recently decided to change from 12 hour to 6 hours til match start time (I think this also affects the amount of bets available to place each day). I Think going forward will keep it at 6 hours and round bookmakers I know that I have had accounts suspended on in the past. We’ll see how this next 1000 goes but I’m considering stopping once my subscription expires later this month- only because my accounts are constantly being gubbed- but we’ll see. It’s taken me less than two months of value betting to make just as much as I made from matched betting in a year, which is amazing. If this is the last post I do on here, I want to say Thank you to rebel betting!

Tom

[Hanna]

@tomrrowe

It’s taken me less than two months of value betting to make just as much as I made from matched betting in a year, which is amazing. If this is the last post I do on here, I want to say Thank you to rebel betting!

Thank you too! Impressive results so far. We hope that you want to stay with us further on as well, but I understand it can be hard if you face too many limitations. Is there a way you can open up new accounts or perhaps use bet brokers to access more bookmakers?

[tomrrowe]

Since I’m in the UK it has been very hard to get onto bet broker sites. The only one I have had a bit of progress with is asianconnect, but they require you to deposit with Neteller or Skrill only, who I had trouble with trying to deposit with (let alone their £5 service charge for every deposit/withdrawal). Wish the UK allowed bet brokers like 3et & BetInAsia. I have been opening up new accounts, for example I have had all my Coral accounts restricted but I still have my Ladbrokes accounts. They both operate under LadbrokesCoral so I’m able to find pretty similar odds between those two bookies <— good tip for any UK value bettors.

[tomrrowe]

3000 bet progress

Getting to the 3000-bet milestone has taken a bit longer than the previous 1000. This is attributed to a number of factors including account restrictions and availability of my own free time, but nonetheless here we are. After my two months subscription expired, I did consider calling it a day with value betting since my volume had dropped significantly and felt that I was not going to get the most value out of it by renewing. However, I decided to carry on since it was still going well in terms of profit, I had just managed to get onto a bet broker (AsianOdds) & was getting prices matched on the exchanges (Smarkets & Betfair).

This period of 1000 has been the most variable out of the 3 as you can see from my P&L graph when comparing it from 2000 bet milestone. Pretty much just after 2000 bets it went crazy, soaring up to then come back down and settle again, now currently tracking a bit below EV. I’m unsure whether this variance was because I had switched from standard bookmakers, to exchanges & brokers or whether it was just variance doing its thing. Important to note I still haven’t changed my settings from last time.

I think placing my bets on brokers & exchanges has had an effect since not all of my stake often gets matched, a lot of the time my price doesn’t get matched on the exchange or brokers have limits that are below the stake suggested on rebelbetting. For example, the software suggests a stake of £100 on odds being offered on 3et but AsianOdds has a limit of £46 on the selection, I always place the £46 and log it with the £46 stake instead of the suggested £100. Could this be hindering my growth and possibly causing the recent variation in my profit graph?

Since I use the software now as a reference to place bets not necessarily on the bookmaker they suggest, the bookmaker section on the report is redundant so the record of bookmaker numbers are from my own records, with slight variation in numbers on the rebelbetting numbers but not massive.

Onwards to 4000!

Tom

[nkingy2003]

Hi Tom.

How are you getting on now since your last post? Are you still betting with exchanges and brokers?

Would be interested to know more about this as there is obviously a long term benefit to being able to get on at the exchanges/brokers.

[tomrrowe]

Hi nkingy2003,

I’ve placed another ~850 bets since my last post and here’s how my graph looks:

These last ~850 bets have been placed solely on either through my betting broker on Asianconnect, Betfair Exchange or Smarkets. Through asianconnect I’m able to place bets on markets on 3et, BetISN & 188bet, all of which are unaccessible where I am. My Yield from Asianconnect has improved massively since my last post which is great since this is now what I’m primarily using to place my bets. I was worried before about not being able to keep up volume, that was back when football was still in pre season, now that the seasons are fully under way the volume has gone up and it’s taken me a lot less time to reach the next 1000 milestone.

As well as this, my variance has calmed a bit in this period. Most bets that VB recommends on 3et, 188bet or BetISN are toward the lower end of my value bracket (2%-2.5%). So this has slowed my exp ROI down a bit as well as my actual ROI as you can see on the graph, the exp ROI goes from a steep incline to then leveling out once I switched primarily to broker betting.

[nkingy2003]

Hi Tom,

Thanks for the reply. Good to see that you are still able to keep the volume up with brokers and exchanges.

I don’t fully understand how you are betting with exchanges. I presume with the broker you are placing a bet at the broker when a value bet pops up with either 3et, BetISN or 188bet?

What do you do with exchanges? Obviously the exchanges don’t pop up as suggested bets so are you just placing bets on the exchanges at prices that represent value and then waiting to see if you get matched?

[tomrrowe]

Yes, that’s pretty much exactly what I’m doing- I’m using bets that the software detects from other good value bookies and then placing orders at the same price on the exchange- I’ve tried looking to see if anyone else is doing the same on this forum but couldn’t find anyone, I did post about it aswell a few months ago but got no reply.

I was unsure whether this strategy would negatively affect my results since I don’t always get matched and sometimes only get partially matched. In those cases I either remove the bet from the tracker or adjust the stake to reflect whatever got matched, obviously this will be messing with the kelly method since my stake will not always be optimal, and my available balance will also be slightly off. However, since switching over to primarly exchanges/broker you can see it hasn’t had a negative effect on my results and my ROI graph is still trending upwards, so I think I’ve answered my own query. The results will only be more concrete the more bets I place.

Regarding the broker, yes asianconnect gives me access to those 3 bookies so whenever a VB pops up with those 3 I use asianconnect.

[ipexi]

I dont think that it affects negatively if you place the bet with smaller stake than recommended. Of course Kelly doesnt work like it should but if the bet has value i think its worth to place. My stakes have been limited on some bookmakers so i just place what i can and i have made profit. But it would be nice to hear some more thoughts about this.

I have been using BetInAsia for valuebetting for some time. With 329 bets my yield in there is 0,0%. We just need more time and bets to see if its actually profitable.