1000 Bet Progress

Hi Tom,

Sorry to bombard you. Got a question about the exchanges. Betfair don’t seem to have a lot of the events listed on the VB software. Do you add filters so you aren’t wasting your time trying to find events on Betfair that don’t exist?

Hi nkingy,

Opening an account with asianconnect can be a bit of a ball ache, it took me a few tries before I managed to get it up and running, keep trying and chipping away and you should be ok. The website does look a bit shady especially since brokers are actually not allowed in the UK & that the site isn’t set out too nicely, but you can take my word that it is safe, I was wary at first especially since I was depositing quite a large amount into an account not really knowing who/where I was sending it. They will ask for KYC details and there are some monthly withdrawal limits- I recommend you get your account fully verified ASAP (at least in good time before you wanna withdraw). The chat support are very helpful and reply quick so if you have any q’s they’re capable of answering.

If you are in the UK like I am, you should open a Skrill account if you haven’t already, this is the easiest way to deposit- once you have deposited (min £100) then you’ll have access to the site. Make sure you deposit into asianodds, from there you’ll be able to access the bookies: SBObet, 3et, BETISN, SingBet (188bet) & Pinnacle, so you don’t have to log into the individual bookies each time. IMO, the best ones for VB are 3et- then BETISN & SingBet. SBO’s limits on their are so low (usually £15 max) I don’t bother with them. Pinnacle bets don’t come up on VB anyway so no need for them.

I just remove the events that aren’t listed on smarkets, Betfair or asianodds, these are usually only obscure basketball & hockey games though, so it shouldn’t be happening too often. Use Betfair’s search bar if you haven’t been already for teams/events you don’t recognise.

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Hi Tom.

I did use the asianconnect chat support last night and they were very helpful. Unfortunately I’ve made a deposit in to SBO already and I need to turn it over x1 times before I can withdraw it. I will turnover with SBO and withdraw then place a deposit with assianodds. Thanks for the info, I didn’t know it had to be through asianodds to access all of those bookies. I believe I will need to use a VPS with all of these as their sites are restricted in UK. The chat support said I would need a VPS.

I have been using the search bar on Betfair but I’m still not familiar with which events are on their or not, so I’m searching for events that aren’t listed. Over time I will get more familiar with which events are listed on betfair so it shouldn’t be a problem.

I’m still rinsing the bookies and will continue to do so for as long as possible but just trying to get ahead of the game by setting up some long term options like you have.

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Placing bets on exchanges at the same price as flag up for bookies is not +ev afaik, because of the commission. Have you considered this?

Bets with value on the lower end of my range of 2% may fall below that with the comission on exchanges- I keep my own record of all my value bets placed on rebelbetting as well as the tracker record which is exclusive of comission, based on those numbers I have a record of what my balance should be on the exchanges and take off any comission manually there. I try to prioritise bets from the brokers more recently. I make up the value lost from comission thru other ways such as racing value bets, matched betting, arbing & trading.

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Hi Tom. I’ve started using Betfair but I seem to be having an issue where my bets sit there unmatched and then it appears the market shifts and my bet will get matched but at this point the market has moved and my original bet may no longer represent value. Early days yet so I will have to give it time. Just wondering what your yield is on Betfair now? I know when you posted above it was 0.31%, has this improved?

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Hi Nkingy,

This can happen with any bet that the software recommends regardless of it being on an exchange or conventional bookie. The market can shift away or in your favour after you place anywhere you bet. If you’re really concerned about this then I’d only use betfair as a last resort, adjust your value filters a bit higher so that if the market does go against then you have a buffer that it hopefully won’t fall under, or reduce your time to event start to 3 hours or less to give the market less time to move.

My Betfair yield has actually quite drastically dropped off since posting:

Betfair yield 0510

These bets have been placed mostly within 6 hours of even start (the average value is excluding comission)

I’m approaching 4000 bets and should hit it this week so will post a full breakdown from all bookies & asianconnect in a couple days.

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Hi Tom. Market can shift either way as you say. My concern with Betfair is that if I place a bet which is unmatched, I’m only going to get matched if the market drifts, in which case my bet may no longer represent value. If the market moves away from me then I won’t get matched so I won’t benefit from my value increasing.

Early days for me using Betfair, and as you say, I can look to bet on their at higher value prices which should help the yield. I’m still milking the soft bookies but getting accounts restricted so I’m just trying to plan ahead.

Will be interesting to see your 4000 bet update when you reach it. Thanks.

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4000 bet progress

This 1000 bet period has been a bit more steady than the last. My results have kind of plateaued recently and I am quite far off my exp ROI. I’ve been able to reach the next 1000 a lot quicker now that I’ve been able to place mostly on a bet broker (AsianOdds). Again, I haven’t made any drastic changes to my settings although I have recently changed from 6 hours to event start down to 3 for exchange bets but kept at 6 hours for the rest. It makes more sense to leave less time for the market to change where I have unmatched orders in the market.

4000 summary

After a less than impressive start on AsianOdds I am now happy that I’m in the + with them, I would recommend them to any UK VB’ers who don’t have access to a broker. Hopefully AsianOdds will soon be integrated into Rebelbetting. My performance on the exchanges has not been great this last 1000 so I am considering cutting them out altogether. Betconnect is still not great if you want bets matched consistently, they often get barely matched or not at all.


I’ve added in a summary of performance from my last 1000 bets as well as my overall performance, thought this would be better way to present the results since I am now literally restricted to a handful of sites to bet on. I’ve also provided a bet outcome pie chart from my own data since the pie chart in the reports section has been broken for some time and not showing, is anyone else seeing the same? I’ve only been able to record wins, losses & voids. Half loses are part of the lose count and half wins are part of the win count.


You can see from the count that my last 1000 bets have been around 90% soccer bets, this is a product using AsianOdds who I find mostly have the best value on soccer bets. This is evident in the increase in yield from soccer over the past 1000 bet period.

See you at 5000 :slight_smile: ,

Tom

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Hi Tom,

Thanks for the update. Very encouraging to see that AsianOdds seems to be working out for you. Are there any max bet restrictions on AsianOdds?

I done a bit of a test last week with betfair and seemed to have similar results to you. My approach was the following:

Take the suggested bet from VB software, this tells you the odds and expected value. From this I am able to get the true implied odds. For example, if a VB suggested bet is odds of 2.10 and the value is 5% then I can calculate that the true implied odds are 2.00 or 50% probability.

I would then set my own value target, in my case it was 7%. I would then add this to the true implied odds of 2.00 to give me my odds of 2.14. I would then place the back bet at 2.14 which in theory is at 7% value. I would also do the same with a lay bet, in this case I would subtract 7% which would give me odds of 1.86, I would then lay at that price. I then have a back and a lay bet in the market waiting to be matched, both at a theoretical 7% value.

On top of this, if its a two way market and you have the implied odds for 1 outcome then you can work out the implied odds for the other outcome and place both back and lay trades for this outcome. In the example above, if one outcome has implied odds of 2.00 (50%) then the other outcome is also going to have implied odds of 2.00 (50%). Obviously you can’t do this for a 3 way market.

Anyway, I was quite excited by this and thought it would work… but it didn’t. I was using the same stake sizing Kelly Criterion calculation and 2% max bet as in the VB software. I had approximately 150 bets matched and lost around 30% of my starting bankroll. Now I know 150 bets isn’t enough to truly test something out but at no point have I ever come close to losing 30% of my bankroll in 150 bets using the regular VB bets.

My theory is that the bets sit there unmatched and only get matched if the market moves against you. If the market moves and your theoretical value decreases you are likely to get matched, which isn’t necessarily what you want as the value has decreased, or disappeared altogether. However, if the market moves the other way and your theoretical value increase then you are unlikely to get matched as other people may be in the market with odds at less value to yours and they get matched first.

Just my theory. I was going to play around with it a bit an perhaps increase my target % to 10% but I think I might start with AsianOdds instead. I’m only at 1400 bets and already got lots of account restrictions.

That is an interesting technique regarding the exchanges and one that I had not thought of before, would be good to see that play out over a bigger number of bets.

I am focusing on trying to bet as much on the broker as possible now. As for asianodds, they do have max bet restrictions depending on which bookmaker is being offered. From experience, SBO is the worst- rarely see their max bets over £13, apart from them, all the others are v reasonable. Also, if you’re not already using them, midnite are a UK bookmaker that exclusively offer esports betting markets. Esports is one of my best categories on VB and I have had some success with them recently- if I see an esports bet pop up on the software I check on midnite for their price and they often offer the same prices. Worth checking out if you haven’t already.

Tom this is great, thanks!

Do you avoid lower leagues to stay off the bookie’s radar?

Hi Mark,

No I never used a system avoiding lower leagues I bet on anything with value really. Just concentrated on getting my volume up- probably why I got restricted so fast so often lol.

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Hi Tom,

Started playing with AsianOdds through the AsianConnect account. Just wondering what country VPN you use? I’m using a VPN from Japan and its very slow.

Also, what url do you use for AsianOdds? Seems to be a few different options.

Thanks.

hi:) i really like that we have a thread here about shifting from the softs to brokers after beeing limited on the softs. thanks for sharing all ur stats tom:)
first of, i would like to say that i completly agree with nkingy2003 regarding his opinion on placing orders on an exchange with the odds that pop up here at rebelbetting. to do so is a certain way of loosing money.
nkingy2003 describes it really well himself: " My concern with betfair is that if I place a bet which is unmatched, I’m only going to get matched if the market drifts, in which case my bet DO no longer represent value. If the market moves away from me then I won’t get matched so I won’t benefit from my value increasing."

The whole idea with a valuebet is to place a bet on a price that is higher than THE CURRENT market (and hopefully beat the closingline).

tom then answers : “This can happen with any bet that the software recommends regardless of it being on an exchange or conventional bookie” this statement doesnt make sence at all. the difference is ofcourse the fact that if u make a bet when a valuebet pops up. well then u are getting a better price than THE CURRENT market.
by placing an order you just get the same price as everyone else if the order gets filled (hence no value).

i want to give alot of credit to both of u for beeing so creative and trying to find new ways to beat the market.

iv resently signed up to a sportmarket account (to access the asian bookies). the problem im having is that close to 100% of the valuebets from sportmarket that pops up here on rebelbetting, are no good. the odds/line has changed on practicly all of them before u are able to make the bet.

perhaps i will have more success if i put 3et,betisn and 188bet in the filter instead of putting sportmarket?

what do u say tom ? do you often see that the line/odds have changed before u are able to make the bet?

oskar:)

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i actually see now that singbet is not added as a default on sportmarket. you have to ask support to add it to your account. this might explain why ALOT of the valuebets were gone before i was able to place the bet.

Singbet Void bets after settlements with no reasons a lots of times. So be carefully. Thats why sportmarket doesnt have them as default.

yea iv heard that. is that a real issue tomrrowe ?
have u had any bad experiences with them?

do u use sportmarket pivert1000 ?
are u getting alot of valuebets from rebelbetting for sportmarket?