$2K (-14%) Loss after 370 Bets, but Already Limited by 4 Bookies

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I am literally screwed. I am in the USA, and after only 370 or so bets, I have already been limited by Barstool, Bet MGM, Unibet, and TwinSpires. Since I filter out low-tier leagues and only very rarely bet on soccer or other sports not big in the US (fair number of tennis bets though), my account limitations are presumably due to achieving too high of a yield in a short span on these bookmakers. However, the gains that got me limited on these bookies have mostly dissapated and been offset by losses, and I’ve lost money on a number of other bookies, adding up to a $2K loss, or a -14% ROI.

I still have a number of other bookmaker accounts that are active, but if this continues, I will wind up without sufficient bookmaker options to make enough value or arb bets to be profitable, while still incurring a sizeable loss overall.

My stats aren’t that bad for value betting - my CLV is only ~2.3%, but I’ve been working on raising it quickly once I discovered the optimal maximum start times for various sports, my average value is around 5.5%, average odds +110 (2.1). I should have a $700 profit according to CLV, but instead am nearly $2k in the hole.

Now, the normal response would be to just keep placing more bets, and eventually the profit will come as the value catches up the variance. But, since I’m already limited by four bookmakers - what happens when I keep losing money overall, but due to short-term win-streaks, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetWay, BetRivers, Bovada, etc. start limiting me too?

I understand that value betting works for most people long-term because the math dictates it, but I am frustrated because it’s starting to feel like I simply got the worst luck possible and have just thrown my money away. And it doesn’t feel like I’m “investing,” it feels like I’m, well… gambling. And losing, like gambers do.

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I work from home and have a dedicated laptop at my workstation. This has enabled me to place an eyewatering 19000 bets since May last year when I joined Rebel. I am in profit > £3500 , ( been stuck there since about November—DEcember and January have been crap!) and you will always face UPS and DOWNS. Im gubbed everywhere so can only bet peanuts. The only solutions for you appear to be begging friends/family to open accounts for you ( Im personally uncomfortable about this) also there is the option of using bookies that dont limit ie the Sharps ( rebel offer this option ) Ive been trying to ask around and post on the Community for advice/help from users who are already using the sharps, but as of yet …nobody seems to ever reply, Ive reposted a query again today…and a couple of weeks ago went through all posts and directly contacted members who appear to have used Betin Asia/Asianconnect, but none have replied. My conclusion is 2 -fold they are making a killing and keeping stum…or they packed in.

My gut is telling me the latter.

I am continuing as a hobby …and my experiences dealing with AsianConnect so far have been frustrating…I opened a SKrill to be then told they wont accept it and Ive arranged a trial whilst I sort out a Tether act, but the passwords they send dont work :frowning: …and to cap it all , their English isnt that great when you get onto CHAT wiith them…apart from the courteous Hello Sir, what follows is not easy to decifer.

Rebel Betting are a good Company- not perfect, but I am happy with them. The value bets are plentiful and its not their fault when they lose. None of us has a gun to our head , we all decide whether or not to take their found Value bets. You mention you felt like you were gambling…well. YOU ARE …but with a slight long term edge.

You either ride through it ( keep piling bets on) or quit, and only you can decide

Cheers

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That sucks that your account is limited everywhere. What I am getting at for me is that I’m afraid I will be limited everywhere before I can break even and be in profit, thus making it much harder to dig myself out of that hole to at least get back to even.

I too have been looking into how to get setup with sharps, but in the USA it seems very difficult. However, I have found two bet brokers, Premium Tradings and Bookie Link, that seem to service US customers and provide access to a handful of sharps. Neither integrate with RB, but I’m pretty sure one could just include the sharp bookies in their RB feed and then use the broker interface to place bets.

My comment about investing vs. gambling was in reference to the slogan on the RB site about “turning gambling into investing.”

My problem right now is not with RB’s software or team, it’s great. It seems I’m having a problem with value betting in general, namely the fact that the “just keep placing bets and eventually you’ll profit” rejoinder is not really true. Just based on the hole I’m already in, it seems very easy to wind up in a steep deficit by the time your accounts have all been limited, thereby making it mathematically prohibitive for you to ever recover your principle and break even.

I’m not going to quit, but I do think as soon as I’m able to get set up somehow, I should probably start focusing on arbs with sharps since value betting with softs seems like it’s just going to end up costing me money, regardless of what the math usually dictates for most users.

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One coping mechanism Ive used , when facing continuing losses - ( I am in this boat right now-seeing seas of “lose” on my tracker) is to ride out the downswing by lowering stakes, so you dont end up bust. As you notice an upturn ( which always occurs at some undefined point) raise them again. There will be hardened purists who would frown at my coping strategy- but each of us have differing opinions. I look at posts of people making large gains during this same period and wonder if these are genuine or not- but I suppose they serve as motivation :slight_smile:

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This would be so easy if we’d know when a upswing is coming :grin:

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Then all the fun would go :slight_smile: …Im trying to wean myself off looking at my tracker on a daily basis…Ive never had a full month where I was down overall, but at the moment its looking like that might change! Ive not experienced a good upswing since last October…just a bit up and then followed by a genteel decline…Thank God for the Sure Bets!

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Are you limited on specific sports at those books? Or is it an across the board limit? Usually the US books are picky about which sports and bet types they will limit. It’s vary rare that they will administer an across the board limit, especially if you aren’t making money

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Also, to add some hope to your situation, Barstool, Unibet, and MGM are probably top 3 in terms of most likely to limit. As far as I know, Fanduel and Draftkings are more lenient, especially on the big sports

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Hi,

Thanks for your replies. It’s good to hear that FanDuel and DraftKings are more lenient, because I also found out I’ve been limited by Bovada today.

On Barstool, Unibet, and TwinSpires, it appears I’m probably limited across the board, but I can’t be sure because the only things I’ve really been able to bet on there have been basketball and very occasionally soccer. At first, it seemed I was only limited on NCAA basketball O/U, but I’ve now encountered limits on a variety of NBA and NCAA markets, and soccer markets.

I’m hoping to be able to place some tennis bets on these sites to see if I’m fully limited, or wait until baseball spring training at the end of this month. We’ll see.

BetMGM might just be basketball as well, but doesn’t seem market specific. So I’m hopeful, but not optimistic, that I’m not fully limited. I probably am.

Bovada has limited me accross the board, which is odd because I had read several places that Bovada doesn’t limit, so that was very disappointing.

The good news with them is that they don’t seem to require much verification, and I’ve also read that they have multiple competitors in that offshore bookie space that have similar lines – so maybe I can just make a new account with Bovada, or with one of their imitators?

I don’t know, this is all getting pretty ridiculous. We don’t have many bookies available in the USA, so getting limited by 5 of my highest volume ones already when I’m still in an almost 15% hole is pretty demoralizing.

It’ll be mathematically pretty rough to recoup a $2,000 loss when I’m only able to place small wagers on the bookies that provide a high volume of opportunities.

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Thanks again for the info. Do you know anything about Betway’s limiting habits? If I can keep them, FanDuel, BetRivers, and Caesar’s (WilliamHill US) around long enough, I might still have a chance here.

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I think Betway is quick to limit, but if you want another offshore with decent volume, try BetOnline. I use them as well. Although I have to say, they are fairly sharp, so you might not be able to get the same volume you had with Bovada. It’s better than nothing though.

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Also, with that being said, there is no reason to avoid Betway entirely. If you can get a few hundred bucks out of them before getting limited, then that’s also better than nothing

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I don’t have anything specific, I just have heard of them limiting sharp bettors in general, which is true for any retail sportsbook

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It is 2K plus Monthly fee’s?

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Depending on the state you are in, you may have some options to barstool/twinspires. other Kambi books, DRF, Parx, BetRivers off the top of my head are a few. all have the same lines, you will get limited quick also.