500 bets - how bad it can get

I understand the frustration, but it’s important to understand the power of placing many bets. (Sorry if we drone on about this :slight_smile: )

1000 bets sound like a lot, but it’s really not with the amount of variance and an edge of 3%.

Variance results in proportionally larger swings when starting out as well.

Example:

With a 3% yield (edge), the risk of getting a negative profit after 1000 bets is around 16 %.

However, after 5000 bets, the risk is down to ~1.5 %. 98.5 % of bettors will be profitable.

I hope this makes sense, and gives some hope for the future. :slight_smile:

Play around with this bet simulator and see for yourself.

1000 bets:

5000 bets:

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