500 bets - how bad it can get

Hi everyone!

It’s been a week now since I started and have reached 500 settled bets. In the past , I did matched betting, so I figured I’d try our value betting. My experience for the first 500 bets has been horrible.


With a bankroll of £5.000 within 5 days I “gained” a £1.000 loss. Add to that the expected profit of approx. £500 and I’m down £1.500 from where I’m supposed to be.

However, having discussed with Hanna, it still within the expected variance.

And things have improved recently, looking at the 500 settled bets mark:
I’m still £1000 from where I’m supposed to be, but hopefully after 2000 bets I will be on track.

From my side, I think I made a mistake by putting max value bet on 3%. Once I hit a few unlucky £100 bet losses, it really showed. It could’ve gone the other way around, but it didn’t. I gradually lowered it to 2.7%/2.5%/2.3%/2.2% every 50 bets.

The bookies I’m using are bet365, William Hill, betway, unibet, 888sport (recently stopped, because they started limiting how much I can bet), 10bet and marathonbet(2 days ago the limited my bets to £0.21, so I guess that’s it).

The settings I use are:
For the first 3 days the timeframe was set up to 48 hours.

I realize this is a math game and have seen several examples of results going the other way (significantly higher profits than expected, but they even out after a few thousand bets.), but I wanted to show the other side as well. This can obviously happen, due to variance, but I don’t recommend it if you’re in a psychologically/financially bad place. Having big losses isn’t fun, to put it mildly.

Still have a lot of bookies available to do bets with, so I’ll continue to pile on, but we’ll see what the future brings.

I’ll update my results on a 1000 settled bets.

I have the exact same problem starting since this week. But I believe in maths so I keep going. My bankroll is ofcourse not that high. I’ll increase it over time.

Marathonbet also limited me after only 10 single bets, each a stake of 5 euro! I immeadiatly withdrawed all my money and asked to shut down the account. Never seen something that bad @ a bookmaker. I understand they limit people with big stakes (I did it in the past to on Unibet) for a day etc… but 10 single bets with only a stake of 5 euro. Unbelievable.

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Seems we started around the exact same time! I also started roughly a week ago with similar results.

I made a bit of a recovery today though

I think it’s some some bad variance straight out of the gates. Will see how it look after 1000-2000 bets.

Thanks for sharing guys!

Here is my status after 1000 settled bets:

Last couple of days were are great as those before them were awful. So the math does add up.


Results after 2000 bets:
Gubbed by almost everyone.

All in all, way off the mark - £2.500 under EV, but still, I guess I should be happy it’s not a loss.

Main issue is, some bookies will slowly gub after a week or two and monitor when you have a bad day and lose everything you gained from them. Then they limit your bets completely (usually by limiting the stake to under £5). This runis your chance of attaining the EV with that particular bookie.

Asian odds are cool, but only give you 5 bets a day on average. Once the 2 major ones block me, that could be it for me.

-£3500 from EV
I guess sometimes Value betting gives extremely bad advice.

-£4000 from EV

Just so you know what you’re in for. Hope you have better luck than me!

the closer you bet to start time, the closer you will be on expected EV.
otherwise you will make profit, but have bigger variance to EV.

That would be my guess, since Simon said the value is more accurate closer to kick off.

have you tried using sharps? since you are gubbed many places.
difficult to get on odds?

Sharps? You mean exchange or?

BetInAsia, Sportsmarket, 3et and Betfair

I haven’t tried yet

I can only access AsianOdds, through AsiaConnect, so I have 3et, Betins and Singbet (Pinnacle and SBObet have low odds and aren’t worth anything).
Betfair doesn’t make sense as they are the main exchange the algorithm follows, I think.

Asian Odds are ok for those 3 bookies, but you only get approx 5 bets a day from them, so not really worth it in my opinion.

To answer your point on betting closer to the game - my settings are max 12 hours before the game.

But I don’t think that changes much. Let’s say you bet on something 48 hours before and after that a player gets injured and it messes with the odds in a negative way for you. I read that argument a couple of times, but I’m wondering - what are the chances of the opposite occurring? Isn’t it just as likely that a player on the other team will get potentially injured as well?

I think it’s random, so even if it does happen, it should be 50-50 - half positive changes, half negative.

This is how it looks like at the moment and I’m in the process of getting gubbed by the last bookie.
Currently -£4.000 under EV and profit with this last bookie is just under £250. Meaning, if I incur a loss on this batch of 15 bets I just made, I’m likely to get gubbed and that’s it for me.
2000+ bets for minor profit.

I understand the frustration, but it’s important to understand the power of placing many bets. (Sorry if we drone on about this :slight_smile: )

1000 bets sound like a lot, but it’s really not with the amount of variance and an edge of 3%.

Variance results in proportionally larger swings when starting out as well.


With a 3% yield (edge), the risk of getting a negative profit after 1000 bets is around 16 %.

However, after 5000 bets, the risk is down to ~1.5 %. 98.5 % of bettors will be profitable.

I hope this makes sense, and gives some hope for the future. :slight_smile:

Play around with this bet simulator and see for yourself.

1000 bets:

5000 bets:

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Where do I put 5000 bets on, mate? I’m being gubbed on Bet365 as we speak.
Get me another account and I’ll keep on playing. Every other single bookie gubbed me and AsianOdds doesn’t have more than 5 a day with low stakes.
I surpassed 2100 bets and should be on £4600 EV with a £103.000 turnover.
Yet I’m currently on -£50.

How is your reply helpful then?

-£5.000 from EV. £107.000 turnover. Start giving me good advice, this is absolute crap so far.

The obvious issue is the size of your bets.

With max stake at 2,2% of bankroll?

Yes if youre worried its harder to stay focused, better to build up slowly.

I haven’t broken or pulled 1 bet. Everything was set as they recommend it.
And they strategically tell you afterwards that there is 10% chance of actually incurring a loss after 5000 bets (for which you need additional people’s accounts - passports or drivers licences and also bank accounts). They don’t mention this when you subscribe.
They promise new platforms where you can “double the number of bets”, but don’t mention you can’t access them in many countries.
All in all, it’s no better than random chance so far (or worse).