6,700+ bets but going nowhere for 3 months (updated!)

Hi all,

After a really good start at the beginning of September and up to around the 2,000 bets mark in October (and nudging close (but not over) the EV line), I got restricted by most of the soft bookies - from then it’s completely stagnated with most of my bets being placed on b365 - with the last 4,000 or so bets over 3 months I’ve been flat or gone backwards, so I know have less profit than I did 4000 bets ago in mid-October - that’s a lot of effort/bets to place to go backwards and I have to question now whether it’s going to be worth it - I took the new option to include the sharp bookies and exchanges, but obviously the monthly subscription is going to put a further hit on the profits/losses, so just wondering if it’s worth continuing to plough on - has anyone else been so far from EV at 6700+ bets and seen a recovery?

Thanks,

Stewart

Hi Stewart,

I’ve signed up for the free 2 week trial, therefore my data set is pretty small (only 135 bets) but I’m down 230 quid… I’m just following the rules… But the results make it hard to justify a 79 quid /month subscription… Interesting how your much longer efforts don’t seem to have produce the +ve return… I have notice that some sports market are not delivering a +ve return (basketball is particularly bad for me) therefore why is Rebelbetting (as a data company) still offering me these bets, they have a -14% return…???

image

Good luck, but to me this seems like gambling, not investing.

Can rebelbetting respond?

Thanks,

Betternot…

i have the same nothing to do with valuebetting
got limited on two bookmakers not for to much profits but to many bets i guess
it really do not make sense
betfair ttrading for sh goal or overs 2.5 gave me 10% roi
i thought valuebetting with rebel will doing well but i can found nothing

RebelBetting, can you reply as to why your service is providing such poor results and justifies a monthly payment for a -ve/evens return?

Thanks,

Betternot

Hi Shayward,
I feel your pain, I don’t understand what’s going on either? Over 5k bets and going nowhere

any more!

Rebel what do you guys think?

I´ve got some good results while others have not, but I am going down a bit again…
Gonna try some new bookies, Expect or Betclic, as they said their yield was good lately.
My previous success was in 888 (now, they are awful and I am getting out!), 365 (stilll good) and Sportingbet/Bwin (still ok).
Part of value bet is gambling, yes. Because they estimate a “value bet”, if a bet has value, looking into statistics and odds…
I gamble small stakes, just for fun, in hockey, soccer and nba… but the soft is still paying itself, at least, for me.

I’m just using the 2 week free to see how it worked out. The issue with this is that I’m limited to about 20 bets per day and a max bet value of less the 5%. I guess the value of less than 5% has an influence on the quality/potential of the bet offers I get and therefore my returns - my trend is downwards… If I had access to +5% I assume my results would be different, but its hard to assess the ROI of the the system when I’m limited to 20 bets and less than 5% value bets.

Unfortunately from these replies the system doesn’t doesn’t give value at 79 quid a month.

Rebelbetting, can you respond as to why there is flat of declining ROI and why the subscriptions is worth it? ATM i’m struggling to see value in your product… Do the filters need to be refined to give a more positive ROI? The whole point of the system is to reduce customer effort searching markets to get profit.

TIA

I think there is no limit of bets per day, if you are 79 plan and have enough bookies… I am not PRO and I did more than 130 last weekend.
And I think the max is 7% (in fact, I am not so into higher ones, sometimes the bookies just cancel them, saying it was “wrong”)
The other points are pretty valid ones, I think.

The average bookie has a payout rate of 94% so if you would gamble randomly your yield would be -6% in a long run. If your yield is 3% you beat the bookies by 9% in a way. You were limited because they noticed you were a sharp bettor, not because the number of your bets.

1 Like

It’s not surprising that @vanleej2012 is underperforming when betting 1 or 2 euros each time, read here.

The purpose of the free trial is to show how the app works, not to make a large profit.

After just 140 bets your performance will be almost random.

We are thinking about how we can show performance of all users and bookmakers and making results a bit more transparent.

1 Like

I’ll post some updates here.

First, update on @shayward results. This is from December 1 to March 1.

All bookmakers have turned a profit, a few sharp bookmakers have resulted in negative profit.

Total profit since: 947 EUR, 1.47% yield. Not great, but not terrible.

Next results, @betternot. This is from 1 Feb.

820 eur profit in just one month, 5.76% yield.

Next results, from @acfuk. From 1 Feb.

1517 EUR profit in just one month, 2.48% yield.

Great results guys, hope for more upswings the coming months! Feel free to verify these results.

In the future I will remind users to post updated results and not just after downswings or after going flat for a period :wink:

In conclusion, dec and jan were underperforming in total. This is probably something you have to get used to. 10% median monthly ROI is still not bad. And February was an improvement, let’s hope this trend continues:

1 Like

Simon, results are correct, and hopefully still going strong. You are right, downswing s come you just have to grind through it. Keep up the great work. Thank you.

1 Like

The results are likely correct. I was unsure and concerned about the sharp dip (relative to the previous progress).

I seem to have turned a corner this weekend.

I have also implemented a strategy to use RB bet + live market or under/over market at <1.07. I’ve used this strategy for over 100 bets (? want to get excel data from RB if possible to dig further) The <1.07 bet is not the losing bet but gives extra odds. It looks like I’m basically gambling (which we are). I’m hoping to keep off bookie radar and not get stake restricted (I have limited soft bookies remaining after matched betting).

Although many purist Value Better won’t like this strategy I’m personally looking to optimize each bets further. As a Starter subscriber for 2 month, I’m is limit to 7% value bets. At the moment my RB + 1.0X system seems to be working. My ‘base’ bet is the RB bet + 1.01 - 1.07 combo. I don’t do it all the time. I stick with the RB recommended bet size giving me better odds, similar edge (as the tiny odds are are not significant) and they haven’t lost v’s RB selection. If my ‘extra’ bet was losing I would stop this strategy, but it has not happened yet.

image

Anyway, that is my story this year. If you want to paper trade it go ahead, or just try it out. I’ve tried a 2 x RB combination at < 2.0, these don’t work too often, only tried a few. But hey, perhaps variance will help you if you have a bigger bankroll.

Value ‘combination’ bets I think is the way to go.

Along with the data the has been provided, which is great, overlaying other data would be good. Key to this game is bet volume - big volume to make minimize variance swings, with the theory value betting works. This is demonstrated by the ‘members trend’ - thousands of bets.

Hoping everyone has a profitable March. I’m just looking to break, and stay above the 1000 bucks RIO, I’m seem resistance that level… Hopefully when that resistance is broken it is to the moon…

1 Like