Say you are about to place a value bet on a basketball game. The bet is AH -3.5 on the home team. You are supposed to get the price 1.91. However when you get to the right page the price has gone down to 1.88 and the value is now minus something.
However you can get the -4 line for 1.93. The difference is of course that a 4 point home win will now only return your money instead of almost doubling your stake.
On the other hand you are risking no more than otherwise and a 5 point win will give you a bigger profit than the original bet would have.
Technically this is not a value bet but I would take it every time I got the chance.
The long term EV will get slightly messed up here at Rebel but I would imagine that profits and ROI would increase long term as very few games end precisely as the line predicts.
Of course this also works with football AH 0.75/AH -1 and O 2.75/O 3 etc.
Any thoughts on this? Am I completely wrong here (very bad at maths)?
I think … in short time, you can be in profit, but in long time you will be in loss
rates are trying to reflect real probability of winning
value betting is betting a bit higher odd then “average” or than “calculated probability” - with that higher odd, in long term you will small have bigger winnings (difference is that “edge”, that difference between real probability and your higher odd)
but, there is chance, that you can win even with lower odds in long term
but you have to bet, only for “bets that support statistics” - what does it mean ?
for example - in hockey (NHL), there is in average 5.9 goals in match
if you bet over 5.5 goals, even with lower odds, in long term you will be profitable
if you bet under 6 goals, even with lower odds, in long term you will be profitable
if you bet over 6 goals, even with lower odds, in long term you will NOT be profitable
you need to find real “value”/number for every bet type, depending on the type of sport and league type (for example - in NHL there are more goals then in AHL)