Hi there, hope u guys are doing well…As u can see in my last posts, I lost almost 500 dollars with the Value betting program. U can check it here:
I don’t have access to my dashboard to show u the bets and presets, but think devs can still access to my profile and check that. I ask for the profit guarantee but never got an answer. Anyways after that huge loss I was not very excited to continue.
Not here to complain about that. The scene has changed an I get involved in the betting world, not using any value betting software, but studying a little about CLV and value. I am still learning.
My question is if u guys have any stats of your bets by %edge. I know it’s kind of difficult to track that but it would be very useful. I am planning to use flat stake but for bets >5% edge but I want to be sure about profit with less edge. Higher variance, but long-term best yield, which I prefer.
Thanks for your answer @Gabor . I will try to explain the better I can. English is not my native language.
I will use an example using another value betting company. That company not only gives you the initial edge placed of your bet but also the closing edge so u can be sure which bet was actually a value bet. My concern with that is when you place let’s say a 2% initial edge bet, you wouldn’t know if you placed a v bet until you get the closing odd (in my case, I use Pinnacle as reference as I consider the sharpest bookie). I know many people have some presets, like edge between 1.5%-12% or something like that. In my case I want to know in which range historically there has been a better performance. Maybe bets >4% showed better yield than >3% bets, or not, I don’t know. Or in which range there is less chance of getting a non-value bet.
Other point is how your knowledge about an specific market or sport can help to identify which bets showed in the feed does not make sense. I follow many tipster’s job around platforms (only those who constantly manage to beat the closing odd at both Bet365 and Pinnacle. One of them told me:
“The closing odds are not the main thing in betting, the important thing is to find the right odds of an event. Sometimes in Australia, I have bets that are higher in closing odds than at the time I took them and yet it passes very easily (even if I have it low most of the time anyway). The problem is that bookmakers sometimes lack knowledge and information on certain markets, last time on a bet in the women’s I had the HT / FT at 2.40 it ended up at 3.20 in closing odds, with even a time when the odds alone of the team was at 2.49 in opening at Pinnacle 1h before the game. However, they won 0-3 with about 30 shots against 2. That doesn’t mean everything even if in general you have to beat it but in some cases it’s not necessarily significant. It depends on the market”
And I find out very profitable markets are Romanian lower leagues, Turkish lower leagues, Australia, Very low Brazilians championships, African an Spanish Lower leagues.
Finally, what if we just log all the bets using our default presets and if it has (let’s say) at least a 5% closing edge, try to get better odds at live betting. I know many things can change during the match, but this way you would never have negative ce bets (discard all the bets that have negative closing edge). Maybe someone tried it.
I know value bets are the only way to earn profits while sports betting, but I want to know how I can get the best possible performance.
Thanks for the detailed answer @Colefer_270. Let me double-check if I understand it correctly:
edge % is equal to value bet %?
My concern is the same, namely the shelf-life of a value bet. Once I place a value bet, don’t know if it will lose it’s value before the match starts. If it does, that is not considered a value bet anymore but in my statistics it remains a value bet. This has more impact on your game if you place bets on matches 48+ hours ahead. Odds will move up and down, never know if your value bet will keep its value till the kick off of the game. Plus odds get updated by the platform with delay which is very frustrating sometimes.
So the information you are looking for is the yield % of different value bet ranges (e.g. 2% to 2.99%, 3% to 3.99% etc.). This could be more complex if you want this data broken down into categories (Soccer, Basketball etc.) and bookmakers. I have this kind of statistics available based on few thousands of bets.
I agree that in some Eastern European lower level leagues you can find value in matches and some of these leagues are corrupt and can’t find the bets at any bookmaker or they remove the odds fairly quickly. I’m from Hungary, believe me I know this stuff If you play too many bets in this arena the bookmaker may limit your account, because it’s suspicious in their eyes that you try to make money in Romanian, Bulgarian etc. markets while you avoid or limit premium leagues such as Premier League, La Liga for instance. You can give it a try but you should have some trick up your sleeve to buy some time for your account (play in the casino, avoid huge stakes etc.).
Let’s chat about the details of the statistical data you are looking for in private. I’ll message you shortly.