After 2550 bets

hi after 2500 bets i can’t make profit. can anyone please help you?




1 Like

As a quick suggestion, try to increase your CLV%. Yours is pretty low.

Plus, are you only betting with stakes of 5, 10 and 15 euros? With just 3 options, you don’t have much space to exploit Kelly criterion. You can try to decrease your rounding from 5 to 2 (or increase your bankroll :slight_smile:).

Uploading: Screenshot_2022-07-20-17-39-09-652.jpeg…

thanks for the advice. what does it mean to decrease the rounding from 5 to 2? i am a beginner of value bets.

how to increase the clv?thanks

Now you are only betting with multiples of 5 euros (5, 10, 15). You can try to decrease your rounding and bet with multiples of 2 euros (2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16). In this way, you have many more options to choose for Kelly. You can change this parameter from options.

Try to increase your minimum value percentage.

Continuing the discussion from After 2550 bets:

hello Mrhyde about the clv yes, I already wanted to raise it I’m waiting for the start of the championships to have more games … about the rounding I can’t understand.I play from Italy and they have already limited me, I have only bet365.rebel left advises not to show that you have a Money management and to always round up.example: if he recommends 13 € I will put 15 €, if he tells me 17 € I will put 15 €, if he tells me to put 18 € I will put 20 € and so on via.I always round up by 2 € more or less.I am forced to multiples of 5.what about the odds interval from 1.5 to 2.10? Happybetting

In the options, you can set up the rounding for each bookie as shown in the image below.
Generally, the higher is the rounding you use, the less suspicious you look. But you also need to consider the size of your bankroll. In my view, if the rounding you use becomes too big for your bankroll, it can damage your results.

image

Continuing the discussion from After 2550 bets:

calculate my rounding? i tried to change the rounding from 1 to 5 but the amount that makes me bet is always the same, of course i tried it for 2 bets maybe in the long run it changes. calculate that my bankroll and 1000 euros and my current profit is 150 € … total cash 1150 € and 2600 bets. thanks for the help i try not to disturb, it is not my intention … i thought of a trivial strategy I had a positive period and lasted from 18 to 23 consecutive days, when I realize that that period has begun I want to raise the stake to 2%, when the downturn begins I decrease the stake to 1% and I also make a few less bets in a way to reduce the negative variance and monetize more, what do you think?) can it be a sustainable strategy? thanks

Higher stake % brings higher volatility to your bankroll. With reasonable higher stakes, you are expected to win more on the long-term, but you also risk facing bigger drawdowns during the journey. You need to find the right volatility that suits your risk-adversity and stick with it. Both 1% and 2% are good options.

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.

Hello mate I would advise you to go for ev of 4.5-5 or higher with max odds of 2.5, i personally use 5+ but drop it to 4 on Mondays and Tuesdays so there’s my recommendation. Also for basketball and tennis (6-7 hours is good because they’re very volatile, i use 5)

hello thanks for the advice i know i have to raise the minimum value i expected the championships to start otherwise i would have few games to play i am playing odds from 1.50 to 2.10, if i change the odds range from 1.5 to 2.5 how many times should i play the odds high? if I play 35 games how many at odds higher than 2? I’m glad to have your advice. thanks

https://walcontent.shinyapps.io/vb_sims/

That’s a link to a value betting sim, just input your settings eg, average odds, average value, average stake, number of bets etc & and it would come up with a rough estimate (fairly accurate)

Secondly, my odds range is from 1.1-2.5 with the aim being for my average odds to be 1.85 cos I’m not to tolerant to variance, with odds of 1.85-1.9 ican expect an average strike rate of 52-54%,back to your question; in 30 bets take odds of 2.5[1 out of every 4 bets though the average max odds i usually get with my odds settings is usually around 2.2 wich i have no problem taking because my edge is always higher that 5%] you shouldn’t really be afraid of the high odds as far as you have your minimum odds set at 1.1,1.2, 1.3 if you can’t handle variance like me, then the goal is to have average offs higher than a 50% strikerate IMO, anyways you should really give the simulator a try, experiment with low odds, high odds, low value etc and try to build a set up from there

That is true only if the Kelly staking amount is not too severely limited by the “max %” limitations.

Please elaborate further what you mean

Ive no bias here, but can say Im well into profit after 2.5 months…if you follow the system it works…its defo no scam…Ive been scammed in the past, so know.