It went a little slow at the start, but a month ago it really took off. For a month straight it went sideways, but i hanged in there and it payed off. I stopped using high odds, they didnt work out very well, now only 1.2 - 2.9. Value 3-11. Its usually something wrong with value higher than that. I dont use Kelly at all, instead same amount on all bets, just to make my accounts last longer. No limitations yet as iv noticed, on the other hand im only betting ~ 15 usd each bet. Been playing a few roulette spins at the casino, also to make them happy. Im also gonna try to “transfer” money from the soft bookies to sharps by making sure bets.
nice results! A few question if you don’t mind
ROI, starting bank? How long have you been going for? I’m really surprised at no limitations, have you been able to make 3k bets with just a single account?
Do you use any asian bookmakers/brokers? what about exchanges?
Sorry for all the questions, no need to answer them all !
I forgot to open the tag, there is more information. I started mid june. I have only used three bookies basically. Bet365 and two local ones. One of them never limits, but have seemed a bit difficult to beat, the other one “holds back” on limitations, that one has been really good. Im up in all sports. OU and AH has been great. Threeway has been the worst, the only thing im down at. Baseball has the best yield, but i won the most money on soccer.
Can you tell us the local bookies you are using and doesn’t limit
Svenska spel doesnt limit, but i think you need to be a swede or have a friend that is and play from his account. It seems to be very sharp too i only lost money there after 4,5 month.
Hi, making 3k bets from summer means that you play also small leagues? Like 3d 4th divisions in small also countries? If this is true, don’t you had any problems with the bookies?
Also how many bets per day do you play?
I am asking because me personally I do not play many bets and also avoid small leagues so do not get limited
Yes i bet on everything. I have great ROI but still i bet only ~15-20$, so the profit is not so much on each site. I place a few sucker bets, sometimes place a few bets live, been playing a lot at the casino, without losing actually. And like now i have half my winnings on Trump, i believe theres great value there. I have made almost no withdrawals, why would i. They dont see it as a loss until you withdraw. I try to keep them happy as much as i can. On a saturday i can get in almost 100 bets. Same with sunday. Monday and tuesday i try to rest, you go crazy hammering the phone all day.
We noticed that Svenska Spel are sharp on Swedish soccer leagues. You can try to skip them, it might improve your yield.
This is statistically significant to around 98%, but might change at any time of course. The results also might be skewed by lots of bets on minor leagues where the sharps have low liquidity. So this is not an official recommendation.
Also, sorry about your loss on Trump. Not sorry about the results I noticed the value had a huge swing during election day.
Good to know! Yeah thats what iv been suspecting, it makes sense that they are sharp on swedish soccer. Maybe include it but with higher value…
Yep lost some on Trump, but fortunately i had some on states like Florida and North Carolina too, which he won, so it wasnt so bad. I could have cashed out early morning and won most of it, but then it turned around. Dont laugh too early tho, the electors arent voting until mid december, lots of lawsuits going on. And the supreme court has a conservative majority
5000 bets update. So the last two month went straight sideways. Havent made any changes so i guess i had bad luck. A couple of weeks ago i increased the value half a percent, to see if it would make a difference. It results in fewer bets so i increased the bet size too. No difference yet but ill continue trying that for a while.
Dont laugh too early tho, the electors arent voting until mid december, lots of lawsuits going on. And the supreme court has a conservative majority
You can get 22x your money back on betfair if you truly believe that he’s still got a shot!
I wholeheartedly disagree with Trump being great value though, Biden was polling unbelievably far above Hillary. If anything, Biden was a great value bet, given how the polls looked, so I put a good bit on him. I even got in a little live-bet when the odds were at 3.25 on pinnacle when Trump (prematurely) announced himself the winner!
In all seriousness though, please do not go on Betfair and double down; Trump has exactly 0% chance of winning this election (and thank goodness for that).
The “trump has a zero percent chance” gives me a deja vu to 2016, i got in ~150$ to 21 odds on ladbrokes back then. This year the polls was even worse, i think it was abc that had Biden winning wisconsin by 17 points, and it ended up as a dead heat basically. They just have no idea what theyre talking about. And the odds reflects the polls, at least to a degree, and that can be taken advantage of. Thanks for the tip about betfair, thats great value. Biden sure has the upper hand, but its not at 95%, as the 22 odds would have you to believe. More like 70-80% in my opinion. But sure its a long shot. Now, head over to betfair!
The “trump has a zero percent chance” gives me a deja vu to 2016
…why? This is a completely different situation. In 2016, Trump’s odds were high with tons of ballots left to count. This election is already over, Joe Biden won in a historic landslide (and most bookies have already corrected the market as a Biden-win). The only thing keeping the market alive on betfair is Trump supporters who read his twitter & believe him when he says he’ll win.
Thanks for the tip about betfair, thats great value. Biden sure has the upper hand, but its not at 95%, as the 22 odds would have you to believe. More like 70-80% in my opinion. But sure its a long shot. Now, head over to betfair!
Haha, well I can’t tell you what to do with your money! Out of curiosity, how much are you putting down?