Anyone one making a profit?

Unfortunately you can’t set individual settings for each sport. That would be a really good improvement. I have three filters set that covers my settings but they are on al sports. If Basketball falls outside those parameters I just snooze the bet.
@Bjorn
@Lars
Is that something you look into? TMS has that functionality.
Thank you.

Yes, and I consider that to be a very conservative setting that makes more harm than good.
If you want to reduce variance then lower Kelly to 25, or even 20%. You will bet safer, with less risk but also reduce your chance for maximum profit. Basically you will still be on Kelly staking but it will require more bets to put the bankroll into play. More bets means a that you average out the ups and downs and hence a smoother curve.
Let me be clear: simulations have shown that a 30% Kelly (that does not get truncated by a 1% maximum stake limit) is the best trade-off between risk and reward.
I am currently using a 30% Kelly.

So you don’t have 3 different settings for 3 different sports? Do you keep changing the settings then? I’m a little confused :thinking:

Thanks for being clear with explanations on staking, the reason i use flat staking is because i set my max stake to 1% so the stake recommendations i was getting was always almost the same eg 15, 13, 16 and i was rounding bets so this just looked like flat staking hence my reason for completely ditching it and using flat stakes, so according to you if i want to use Kelly staking effectively i should increase max bet size to somewhere around 3.5% to get the full effect of Kelly right?

will i be able to have a lot of open bets this way? As with flat staking i can have 100 open bets if I’m staking (1%)

Do you use this with adjust for open bets? Or your Kelly just recommends based on current inputted bankroll.

Do you think the bets will pick up soon? Not many today for some reason

Yeah, not many because of the holidays

No AFOB.
If most of the value bets are around 4-7% then you end up with 90-110 open bets when your whole bankroll is in play. It would be very rare to hit the max tress-hold of 3,5%.

1 Like

What does AFOB mean? The number of bet have raced up. I don’t know what my results are yet; I’ll have to wait and see…

Adjust For Open Bets

I only have 4% roi this week after 252 bets :frowning: Might not even be able to pay off the software this month

I’ve had -1% and will probably end up with the profit guarantee if it doesn’t get any better :flushed: