Bad first 2 days or something wrong with my settings?

Im already -10% ROI and it seems hard to recover for me, but I know it will be profitable in the long run so someone tell me its fine and my settings are correct.

I am new here too so I cannot comment on whether your settings are good or bad.

However, one should always be betting within one’s comfort zone and your issue may be staring off with a £2000 bankroll with stake sizes of 1.5%.

Your results so far are statistically insignificant as pretty much anything can happen in such a narrow sample as you currently have.

In most cases, when you start new betting systems, start new months of betting, the initial period produces losses. This is because, in most cases, the average odds of betting systems involve odds-against selections.

I am quite seasoned psychologically with betting because I started off with the highly volatile casino bonus +EV offers and I saw the long term relationship between profits and EV. I have a few horseracing systems going and losing runs can last for months but I can still sleep well during drawdowns of over £1000.

Despite this, I always start new systems gradually. It is better to wade into the sea from the shore gradually and to dive in as it only takes one strong current of variance and if your feet cannot touch the ground, you may panic.

To illustrate, find your average odds of all your selections and work out the strike rate (%) that you must achieve to break even. Put this in to this Estimated Longest Sequence calculator:

To make RB work to and cover its fees, you would likely need to place over 10,000 bets per year so after you enter your strike rate, you will probably be surprised at the likely longest losing run you will have this year. This longest losing run can happen anytime. It could happen when you start betting, a cluster of them can happen close to each other or variance may delay it long enough so that it just costs you previous winnings.


I went with 2000€ because it is the only way to earn a living wage in mandatory military since they only pay me 115€ a month :smiley: However the couple hundred euros lost wont affect me much, I just dont want to lose the whole balance :wink:

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-341€ in 3 days from 2000€ balance, only keeps going down.