Bad run (title)

What does people think? Should i just quit?

wait, this is not bad luck…there is no way you are like that after 1.4k bets. What are your filters?

I dont understand it either. Somethings are definitly wrong. Actually worse now.

Your settings are bad. If you don’t understand the settings DO NOT play around with them.
BTW how long have you been betting? You posted a 3 month graph and you only managed to place 1500 bets? You should have placed at least 1000 bets the first month.
Set as follows:

    1. Odds: min1.4 max2.5 (if few bets you can raise it to 2.7)
    1. Turn of AFOB
    1. Reduce Kelly to 25% (will reduce variability and reduce chances for losses. However it also reduces chances to maximise profit - which is Kelly at 100%). Once you are in profit you can raise Kelly to 30%)
    1. Update bankroll once a day.
    1. Raise max stake to 4%
    1. Sort bets according time to match start.
    1. If the event is more than 24h to start reduce the stake with 50% (you do not want to tie up too much capital for long periods)
    1. Put down lots of bets (I am at over 11.000 bets)

Yeah, I think that is it…


When you say update bankroll once a day, do you mean add your current profit to total deposits, so it could go down some days?

Its 1400 bet in 1,5 month. Was taking to support and they told me my settings looks ok, But mabye your right.

4$%edge really u miss almost 60% of bets.3 is pretty fine u put 4 when u raid odds to3.5-5 max .also 2.3 odds min are bad especially in unibetet and 365 that have 2.5-3.25 very profitable.With 1.2-2.3 odds if u have a bad variance like u do u cant come come back easily.To low odds

1 Like

I was advised to lower the odds to lower varians by support. What do you think i should put it on?

I already answered that in a previous posting.

That is right. Also with low odds the stake, suggested through Kelly will be high (just the way the formula works), and with a cap on the stake size, due to the "max stake " limit, the expected outcome is far from optimal.

Yes. I actually do it a bit more complex then that but yes it can go down some days. Better than to reduce the bankroll after a few bad days is to top up the bankroll by depositing more into the account that took some damage.
But if that is not an option then update once a day accordingly.

Lost a 1/3 of my bank roll with 0 upside , how do these settings look?

An ther i got limited on Unibet. After lossing €500. What a story this is……

Unibet is starting to limit some markets not all on my account in Australia. sometimes get the full amount on then other times they limit the wager.

I think they are setting a limit on their loses in the lower grade events. The odds are getting harder to catch before they change.

There are so many posts about settings. Check them out.