Bet365 is getting sharper (update: false alarm!)

Because the program is still showing so many bets for bet365, the only explanation that makes sense to me is that the sharp “baseline” bookmakers are pivoting towards bet365 in the closing line, and not the other way around as it should be.

Maybe it has something to do with more esoteric events and leagues that get often promoted as value bets from bet365, where they have somehow gained an algorithmic advantage in predicting the outcomes compared to the sharps.

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Thanks for clarifying it Pete. I combined your query with mine, sorry for the confusion. As a bettor I don’t see any sign that Bet365 would be becoming sharper… However the number of bets in sports like Basketball, Soccer and Hockey indicate a decreasing trend. A decrease in bets could have many reasons so I don’t want to draw a conclusion yet, just inquiring about the potential cause of the phenomenon. It’s very difficult to stay profitable with a few hundreds of bets in a month and this is the bottom line of my message and if we understand the cause of the low number of bets we will see what to expect from the future when leagues will get started again across Europe.

I’ll take a look at the hockey bets, it could be some problems with the fetching of odds for just that sport.

Until we’re able to dig into this deep I can say that currently, during off season, we see about 1/4 of the amount of odds compared to normal. So the number of bets will naturally be much lower.

Hey @Lars, do you have update on that?

We get hockey odds from Bet365, but there are just a handful of matches right now.

I don’t receive Hockey bets for Bet365 since April. Could this issue specific to my account only?
I raised a question in email in the beginning of July and still waiting for a response. Could you please check it out and respond to it? Many thanks…

I started valuebetting this spring but after hearing this I’m thinking if I should continue or not

in the last few days I have lost about 15% of the capital. the losses are mainly from football which at the beginning after a few hundred bets was the only profitable sport, while baseball, basketball and tennis were not so the various sport until a few days ago, but now football has also gone negative and tennis is slowly recovering and I was wondering if all this is variance or even football on bet365 is no longer profitable.Now I’m on about 1100 bets

The numbers on Bet365 have definitely improved the last months since the original post was made. Tennis is still slightly negative, but other sports look better. Football (soccer) has improved quite a lot. More info coming later on, stay tuned!

^^ anything new to tell us? :slight_smile:

Sorry, totally forgot about this. Will check and post the findings on Monday.

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Checked last 90 days on Bet365, and the stats have improved indeed. The percentage numbers below are flat yield.

Large bet count (higher certainty)
Tennis (2.5%) and football (3.3%) has over-performed during the period compared to the CLV (Closing Line Value).

Fewer bets (lower certainty)
Basketball (3.2%) has over-performed during the period.
E-sport (0.4%) has under-performed, but still in the green.
Baseball (-14.1%) has greatly under-performed, but has the lowest bet count of them all (lowest certainty in the data set).

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Also, to be clear, when looking at all bookmakers for all time: every sport is in the green!

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@Bjorn can we get an update on Bet365 stats again? Has baseball improved etc? Thank YOU! :slight_smile:

No, baseball is -11% the last 120 days, but with very low certainty (too few bets)

thanks! if it’s okay, could you post other stats here as well for other sports like you did a month ago? i actually think it would be a good idea to update stats every now and then for the most used sites like BET365 so we would be updated on how it goes generally. I think this would be a good thing for you too, people would see the updated numbers and start / keep paying for VB pro :slight_smile:
How are O/U bets performing?

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Sure thing @KIMMYK

Last 90 days on Bet365:

Large bet count (higher certainty)
Football (2.6%) is pretty much right on its CLV (2.8%).

Medium bet count
Tennis (0.8%) has under-performed its CLV (2.5%).

Few bets (low certainty)
E-sport (1.3%) has under-performed, but still in the green.
Basketball (-1.3%) has under-performed during the period.
Baseball (-12.2%) has greatly under-performed, but has the lowest bet count of them all (lowest certainty in the data set).

Unders (4.7%) in football in Bet365 is over-performing its CLV of 3.1%. Remember that we removed Overs on football because they were not profitable.

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Hi @Bjorn

Could you please share the latest Bet365 performance status again for last 60 days? Thanks in advance.

Sure @nickky

Last 60 days on Bet365:

Large bet count (high certainty)
Football (3.75%) is over-performing its CLV (3.1%).

Medium-large bet count
Tennis (3.11%) has slightly under-performed its CLV (3.3%).
E-sport (2.07%) has under-performed its CLV (3.3%).
Basketball (1.74%) has slightly under-performed its CLV (2.0%).

Fewer bets (low certainty)
Baseball (18.5%) has greatly over-performed its CLV (2.8%)
No bets on hockey during this period.

Great, thank you so much

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