Bet365 is getting sharper (update: false alarm!)

Update Sep 2021: This seems to have been a temporary situation during the 2021 summer. Yield is now back to normal!


The last 3 months have resulted in a -1% flat yield on Bet365 Tennis, Hockey, ESport and Baseball.

Soccer and Basketball are still profitable.

They are definitely getting sharper.

The sharp bookmakers we use as “truth” are still profitable on all sports on all other bookmakers the same time period.

What do you advise here? I just started up value betting again and lost my entire balance at bet365 within a month. Were soccer and basketball still as profitable as usual? Or less?

I would not rely solely on Bet365 for a couple of months and then reevaluate. But remember, these numbers may change at any time.

Soccer and Basketball are profitable, but less so, around +1.3% compared to the average of 2.5%

Yeah, I have many other bookies I use too, just happened to lose what I put in bet365.

I’ll stick with just soccer and basketball now. Thanks for the info!

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Hello Simon, I have a question about this:
A flat yield of -1% in the long run does not only mean that Bet365 has become more accurate, but also that a) they have become more accurate than all bookmakers you use to determine the true betting odds and b) your algorithm still determines a positive Value and suggests these bets as “ValueBet”.
I realize that determining ValueBets is not an exact science, but in theory a positive Value should not lead to a negative flat yield and a 3% ValueBet at Bet365 on soccer, tennis etc. should in the long run lead to the same results as a 3% ValueBet at Pinnacle on rugby, right?
But never should a ValueBet with a positive value lead to a negative result in the long run. Even if Bet365 has become more accurate, in this case simply no ValueBets should be shown for Bet365. Do you adjust your algorithm in such cases?
I look forward to your answer :slight_smile:

Bet365 is definitely not sharper than Pinnacle or Betfair. Bet365’s margin is about 7% so we have beaten them by 6% in a way.

If we want to be profitable we would have to beat them by 7% or more, which at the moment is not happening.

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Thanks, but my point is a different one. You do know the margin and you do know roughly how much an odd has to be better to generate profit in the long run. So if Bet365 is getting sharper I just would expect to get no more or a lot less ValueBets for Bet365.

I understand, but you said:

I just wanted to clear that.

I wanted to start but I have been limited by many books I remain betway unibet and bet365 should I start betting?

I have been using bet365 for 5 consecutive months and it’s profitable. I don’t see or feel that they are becoming sharper… you can give it a try and I hope your experience will be as positive as mine.

Any data? Yield?

How does the software still show so many ‘value bets’ with bet365 if (as the yields suggest) their odds have become sharper?

I have lost a huge chunk to them over the last six weeks, way beyond what I could attribute to variance, so much so that I have stopped using them until this is established. My bet volumes have subsequently dropped from 1600+ a month to less than 400 as there are simply nowhere near the amount of bets available in my other bookies: Betfair and Smarkets. Certainly not enough to justify the extra money for RebelPro on their own. This isn’t sour grapes after a bad month, I accept the rough with the smooth, but unless they somehow soften up again (unlikely) or I can find a replacement, it’s definitely not going to be worth the outlay. Which is a shame as I have loved the product til this point.

Is there anyway I/we can see compare the relative yields of other bookmakers to establish credible and worthwhile alternatives?

Thanks,
Pete

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I’m on board with Pete. The number of value bets for Bet365 has dropped back dramatically in the past few months. Here is my data:

image

N/A indicates that the box is unticked on purpose:

image

As you can see bets for Basketball, Hockey and Soccer is showing a decreasing trend. I understand it’s summer time, soccer (football) leagues finished in May but still… there should be more going on.

The only change I made in settings was to set the “time to match start” from 36 to 300 a few weeks ago.

Could the developers @Simon help us to understand on why we are getting less value bets? There’s 0 Hockey value bet for Bet365 which I find very weird…

Thank you for looking into this.

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Sorry, Gabor, you may have misunderstood.

Up until I stopped placing bet365 bets a few weeks ago I was still getting lots on my list. Well, less than a few months ago when all the soccer leagues were still being played, but still a significant amount.

I was asking how are there were still so many value bets if bet365 are sharper, as Simon had warned us. You may have inadvertently answered my question, so thank you :slight_smile: But I still hope to hear from them re: relative yields of other bookies that I can use to replace them.

Cheers!

Because the program is still showing so many bets for bet365, the only explanation that makes sense to me is that the sharp “baseline” bookmakers are pivoting towards bet365 in the closing line, and not the other way around as it should be.

Maybe it has something to do with more esoteric events and leagues that get often promoted as value bets from bet365, where they have somehow gained an algorithmic advantage in predicting the outcomes compared to the sharps.

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Thanks for clarifying it Pete. I combined your query with mine, sorry for the confusion. As a bettor I don’t see any sign that Bet365 would be becoming sharper… However the number of bets in sports like Basketball, Soccer and Hockey indicate a decreasing trend. A decrease in bets could have many reasons so I don’t want to draw a conclusion yet, just inquiring about the potential cause of the phenomenon. It’s very difficult to stay profitable with a few hundreds of bets in a month and this is the bottom line of my message and if we understand the cause of the low number of bets we will see what to expect from the future when leagues will get started again across Europe.

I’ll take a look at the hockey bets, it could be some problems with the fetching of odds for just that sport.

Until we’re able to dig into this deep I can say that currently, during off season, we see about 1/4 of the amount of odds compared to normal. So the number of bets will naturally be much lower.

Hey @Lars, do you have update on that?

We get hockey odds from Bet365, but there are just a handful of matches right now.

I don’t receive Hockey bets for Bet365 since April. Could this issue specific to my account only?
I raised a question in email in the beginning of July and still waiting for a response. Could you please check it out and respond to it? Many thanks…