I have been discussing this with Hanna but wanted to share it here too.
Not sure how to upload my graph but this is the situation:
Around 4000 bets. After 2400 bets I sat at 3300 EUR profit now after 4000 I have lost 90 % of that and sit at 330 EUR.
I use Kelly 30, value 1-20%, max stake 1% and generally bet last 3 hours before matches start but not exclusively.
First 2500 bets were mainly with Bet365 but my account “died” (got severely restricted) on September 28th where I lost almost 1000 EUR in a day. I then regrouped and have mainly used sharp bookies (Sportmarket) since.
Yesterday I lost 1000 EUR (must be a -25% ROI on the day) again which takes me down to the figure above.
I have checked some of my bets on oddsportal to see if I got value and it seems I beat the closing odds most of the time. Yet I have now lost for almost 6 weeks in a row.
Is this really just variance?
Any help would be appreciated.
Oh, forgot to say that my expected profit is almost 5000 EUR but seems impossible ever to catch that blue line again.
Also Sportmarket tells me that I actually have a ROI of 4,5 % placing 1x2 and AH bets whereas over/under bets have a NEGATIVE ROI of 6,7 %. This is after 1500 bets so don’t know if it has any statistical value.
When you check your reports under menu do you see a lower ROI for Over/under than for your other bet types? I think I heard from someone else here who also had much worse results from those bets than from 1x2 and AH.
I hope one of the founders will respond to this. I read an article on a competitor website (their product is practically the same) saying that all their customers who had made more than 10.000 bets were in profit whereas there were still 10-20% of customers with between 5.000-10.000 total bets who were losing money. If that is really true we still might be underestimating how volatile this is.
As stated above I really have my doubts though. My average bet is 1.87 and I hardly ever go above 2.25 so cannot quite fathom a 6 week losing run like I am having.
It is not an easy question, as a minimum, you should calculate p-value and estimate it. If your two-side p-value less than 0.01 its could say about a high probability of some problems in O/U value estimation.
I am sorry about the late reply.
My ROI for OverUnder is the worst of all, -4,4% after 733 bets.
I still think the volume is too low to claim that there is something wrong with the value estimation regarding OU. A few thousand bets and it should even out, I just hope my money lasts that long =)
But with that said; if I wouldnt have played on OU I would be +10400 instead of -8800. Also basketball is hurting me pretty bad
I just checked some community stats and with more than 90,000 O/U bets on football, the yield is positive but a bit lower then on other markets such as 3-way and AH. So there is still value to be made on O/U
Thank you for that great info!
I have actually cut my OU bets by 50% , slowly recovering.
Is there any similar data on sports? Basketball is -8,6% for me. As with OU I am still betting on it but carefully.
I’m not sure if this is good or bad but I have almost the exact opposite results.
After +2500 bets, O/U yields all of my my entire gains!?! (total yield about 2,3%)
3way has now improved to -7,4% from a long period at -11%-ish.
Win and AH are about even Steven.
I do realize that there’s pretty much a consensus on the forum that O/U is the weakest yielding market, but at the same time we can’t really deny my stats.