We now show closing line value (CLV) in ValueBetting.
We will update your charts today (23 feb 2021), let us know if you find anything strange, or have questions not covered by the articles above.
Closing line means the sharp/true odds just before match start, and are proven to be the most accurate prediction of the outcome of the match. Closing line value means the value you got, compared to the closing odds. This is the best predictor of your expected results.
This is why CLV have replaced the EV line in your charts. The old “EV” is still visible in your reports, with the more suitable name “value at placement”.
- Expected value, closing line and variance
- In-depth explanation of the closing line, including historic ValueBetting results
Showing CLV instead of the old “EV” have many benefits:
- It’s a more accurate prediction of the true outcome of the match.
- It’s the most important metric when comparing results, betting strategies, efficiency per bookmaker/sport/market.
- The old EV line is not a good predictor of expected profits, causing frustration when few reach up to it.
Value at bet placement is always (around 70% of the time) higher than CLV, mostly because the sharp margin shrinks closer to match start.
We have closing line odds for about 95% of all historic bets. Users that have been with us for a long time will have fewer.