CLV discussion and questions, please help! :D

Hello fellow betters!

I am 4000 bets in and it’s going splendid, with around +7k euros and a yield on 6.82% at the moment. But my question is about CLV. Am I understanding correct when I say that the CLV is the value of the bet right before match start? If that is so, why should it have to do with my value at the time I lay my bet?

I understand that the odds will come closer to the true probablitity the closer it is to the start of the match, but then why is the CLV +%? Shouldnt it be close to zero? And why should my yield come closer and closer to this number over time? I do not put my bets right before match start, normally around 24 hours before. So my yield should not be the same as the CLV? I am misunderstanding something and would like some explaining :smiley:

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Closing line value is the price a bettor gets relative to the closing price. If they beat the market, they got positive CLV. If the market beat them, they got negative CLV. Beating the market means getting a better price than the closing price .

Okay, but what has that to do with my yield? I do not bet on the closing line. My yield have been between 5-6% all time. Never close to the CLV.

Yes, the yield fluctuates for me as well. Once it is higher than CLV and once lower in the long term it approaches CLV. Please try again to study the RB help center or google. There is a lot of useful information on the Internet and various forums, and specifically about CLV and mathematics.

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A sound staking strategy (like Kelly) will also improve your yield.


Have you had any accounts restricted from value betting and do you do anything to help avoid any restrictions from happening from bookies?

I’ve been restricted from smaller bookies, but 90% of my bets are through Bet365 and Leovegas and I have not been limited yet on them. Been going for 3 months.

Solid thanks!

How many bets sofar on leo vegas?

Here is a short explanation why CLV is your most important metric:

Here is an even more in-depth article: