CLV Dropping and Downswing

Hi,
After a decent start, I’ve hit a massive downswing, plus my CLV% seems to be dropping too. I’ve not changed my settings at all. Am I doing something wrong or is this just variance?




Same had a good week last week. This weekend til now on a massive losing streak

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Same here, variance :slight_smile: downward for almost a month now

Never fun with downswings, but I never see anyone writing in the forum when the profit is way above the CLV… but when it is below the CLV then :sob:
As far as I can see you have low average odds combined with max stake of 2% (and yes Lm10. I know that you don’t agree). That severely hampers the Kelly staking criterion.
Read up on the CLV! At match start not every bet will be a valuebet. Sometimes the market moves and we have a -EV.
Good luck.

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Max stake 2% is suggested by the site. It it is detrimental as you say, than they should suggest a different %

There are also other default settings suggested by RB. They impact each other. You want to bet low average odds with 2% max stake then go for it…

If I were you, I would set max odds to 2,9 to have bets on tennis as well. There are great bets with 2,62 odds as well.

Minimum value over 4,5%, if you have enough value bets. 3% is quite low, I experienced higher variances when I had this setting.

On weekends you can set 24h bet start date, on the weekends it worked me to set 16h.

Do not bet on basketball with 5h< starting time.

Registering on Bet365 if possible as there are tons of valuebets.

I hadn’t heard about avoiding basketball with <5hrs to go, what’s the logic behind this? It does seem to be basketball where I’m making the biggest losses :pensive:

Would love a b365 account but that’s not an option for me, I’m just using accounts I have left from matched betting.

I’ll also try increasing the max stakes to 2.9, although won’t this further increase the volatility?

And if 2% is detrimental, should I be going higher or lower?

Lol😅 you’re new to Valuebetting right? I just changed basketball yesterday from 4 to two hours cos how can 10% value drop to -5% and this happens very frequently so as i don’t wanna miss out on basketball, i just tighten the settings

I didn’t realise BB was so bad. I’ll try for today without it on my filter.

Although my filters were set to 20 hours, I usually only actually place bets with less than 8 hours to go, often less.

My main worry was the drop in clv from 3 to around 2.6 in a week, rather than the actual variance in results. Hopefully the next week will be a bit better

I can singlehandedly blame that on bball, i monitor clv like vitals(especially bball) and i can say that nba, ncaa are the only leagues that rarely shift. Slovenia, Bulgaria and other leagues are very volatile hence my 2 hour time. Seeing 10% become -5 on several occasions is something :sweat_smile: mind you I’m changing this setting after having placed 10k bets so yes i have reasons

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How do you change it? Is there a setting to do this?

Let’s see how today goes without BB, already I can see there’s much less bets to select though :frowning:

I didn’t say stop betting on bball, just tighten your presets is all i said, leaving out a sport is not a good idea so I don’t recommend any one do that, just tighten your presets

How do you make a filter without basketball? and one for just basketball?

Also to be clear are you saying dont bet on Basketball with only 5 hours to go of the match? Or only bet on Basketball with 5 hours to go of the match?