You should be able to tune your settings to what’s optimal after reading this, hopefully.
This section briefly goes into the different parameters that ultimately decides your variance.
Setting up your odds ranges is completely up to you and your risk/variance preferences. If you can’t handle long losing runs, then you should keep your odds range somewhere around 1 - 2.5. If you can’t handle losing bets when the odds are heavily stacked in your favour, then you should set a minimum odds of something around 1.75. But a far superior approach would be to define a max bet in your profile settings or just reduce your stake if it’s too high compared to your risk tolerance.
TIME UNTIL THE GAME STARTS
The time until the game starts is quite important. The reason is, if you place a bet a full day before game start with an edge of 3% - new information may occur that could swing the bet out of your favour. To be extreme, there is a chance that all the key players of your team might miss their flight, making your team lose the game. There is also a chance that the bet gets stronger, as the same thing could happen to the opposing team. The only thing that can be said for sure is that this will increase your variance, as the lines and the information are not settled yet.
If you place on marginal edges (1-2%), chances are they can swing back if you place it a far from game time. The reason is that even the smallest piece of information may shift the market out of your favour. When you find higher edges, there is always a reason
the market shifts so drastically and the probability that it would shift back is higher. Most of the players in our community apply a rule of thumb that the longer it is until game time, the higher the edge threshold is. For instance, if it’s less than 2 hours until
game time, One would place on their full range. If it’s 2-6 hours, then one would only place on 5%+ edges. If it’s more than 6 hours, then one might place on 8%+ edges.
MULTIPLE LINES ON SAME GAME
If you place multiple bets on the same game with dependant lines, you’ll see huge swings. If you place bets on +0.25 Home, +0.5 Home, +0.75 Home, +1 Home as well as Home to win and you follow Kelly/flat stake sizing you’ll have a lot of money that the
home team is going to win. Keep in mind that if you place on many lines on the same game you need to scale down the bet size. One could argue that
decreasing the bet size and placing on multiple lines could decrease variance, for instance if there’s an
edge on Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals, you place half the bet size on both of them. Personally i place multiple bets on the same game but independent lines, i group threeway-moneyline-handicaps as dependent lines and take bets on only one of them per game, the other line i take bets on is the over/under.
TIPS ON ACCOUNT LIFE
There are different approaches to valubetting in terms of accounts, account preservation approach is not for everyone and i personally have been getting high profits in a shorter time period by following more of a high volume, all leagues approach as i have multiple accounts at my disposal. This isn’t the case for everyone so here are some tips if you’re going with account life over turnover and high volume betting.
- TURN ON RECOMMENDED LEAGUES
- BET WHOLE AMOUNTS
- NEVER CASH OUT/WITHDRAW BEFORE YOU HAVE TO
- DON’T PUSH THE MAX LIMITS
- ONE BET PER GAME
- MAKE YOUR FIRST DEPOSIT SMALL
- WANNA BE REALLY CLEVER? THROW IN AN
ACCUMULATOR ONCE IN A WHILE
- BETTING FROM NETWORKS WHERE OTHERS HAVE BEEN LIMITED: Even if you just log onto your account in a home network where another player have
been limited, you risk becoming limited. We do not know yet whether this could include all betting companies owned by the same firm. Which means that if your friend was limited on Betsafe, you have to stay away from Betsafe, and maybe also Betsson
and Nordicbet while you’re on his home network since all three bookmakers are owned by Betsson. A virtually private network (VPN) could solve this issue.
- NOTHING LASTS FOREVER: Unfortunately, by continously placing profitable bets and beating the bookmakers chances are they will limit you eventually. After all they are losing money on you.
Info in this Article was curated from various sources and summarized, credit to those sources(TMS, Google etc)