CLV stuck and pure luck?

1

Hey guys, recently I have noticed that my CLV is pretty mutch flat eventhough I still make a great profit.

If I check the graph from Jan until Feb my CLV only went up with a few hunderd bucks but my real profit is alot higher.

Is this just pure gambling that I am doing or is there more behind it ?

If I understand it correctly you can make your CLV higher by reducing the time to start right, what is a good number for that exactly?

Right now I have it set at 48h just so I can get as mutch bets placed per day.

My CLV total profit is only at 4.6k€ but my real profit is sitting at 9.1k€ so that has just to do with luck right or am I missing something.

clv
clv2493×1153 125 KB

2

I was wondering the same as since the beginning the ratio of profit vs CLV profit is 1.5/1 or 2/1. So I am always wondering if i am just lucky or the CLV is incorrect?

3

Could be that you’re over performing, could also be the effect of softwares(i know TM does that) undervaluing small odds ranges, e.g 1.8 at 7% will have a hit rate of 1.8 at 10%, thus making those kind of bets win more frequently and perform over the CLV. Anyways, enjoy it😉.

5

your settings pls

1 Like
6

I also have the same effect. Maybe a question for the RB team… How does the flat yield correspond to a flat CLV on a total aggregated level?

7

The flat yield has actually overperformed CLV 10 out of 12 months the last year (Feb -23 included in the screenhot just for fun):

image
image377×512 8.58 KB

2 Likes
8

Thanks for checking this! Quite interesting, we hit higher in yield (around +20% from a quick and ugly mean value) than what we expect from CLV. Have you done any thought on why? Some kind of margin not taken account of? CLV not as close to underlying probabilities as we thought?

9

Yield usually over performs CLV because i read somewhere that low odds ranges(which most of us take) are undervalued.

10

What was your starting bankroll and did you increase it constantly as your profits have increased?

11

started with 1k and yes I inceased it but never betted more than 35€ per bet.

Right now I am betting alot smaller sizes since I am using my 3 limited bet365 accounts to place the bets so sometimes its only 10€ per bet sometimes its 30€.

Last 17 days I’ve made a profit of 1.4K€ so still pretty good