We will soon swap out the current EV line with CLEV (closing line expected value) instead.
Closing line means the sharp/true odds just before match start, and are proven to be the most accurate prediction of the outcome of the match, and also of your expected results. You can read an in-depth explanation of the closing line in our blog.
The EV we present right now is the expected value at the time of bet placement. This is a less useful metric, since the true odds most often decrease closer to match start (70% of the time).
Showing closing line expected value instead will have many benefits:
- It’s a more accurate prediction of the true outcome of the match.
- It’s the most important metric when comparing results, betting strategies, efficiency per bookmaker/sport/market.
- The current EV line is over-optimistic, causing frustration when few reach up to it.
A disclaimer: Getting the closing line on millions of bets every week is no easy task, and it looks like we might not reliably get it for 100% of all matches. We’re aiming for at least 95%, which should be enough to see trends.
Also, we cannot guarantee your old bets placed before this release will have closing line (this depends on how old they are).
You will still be able to view the current “EV at bet placement” if you want, but it will not be the default.
Let us know what you think!