Coming soon: closing line

Announcements
1

We will soon swap out the current EV line with CLEV (closing line expected value) instead.

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Closing line means the sharp/true odds just before match start, and are proven to be the most accurate prediction of the outcome of the match, and also of your expected results. You can read an in-depth explanation of the closing line in our blog.

The EV we present right now is the expected value at the time of bet placement. This is a less useful metric, since the true odds most often decrease closer to match start (70% of the time).

Showing closing line expected value instead will have many benefits:

  • It’s a more accurate prediction of the true outcome of the match.
  • It’s the most important metric when comparing results, betting strategies, efficiency per bookmaker/sport/market.
  • The current EV line is over-optimistic, causing frustration when few reach up to it.

A disclaimer: Getting the closing line on millions of bets every week is no easy task, and it looks like we might not reliably get it for 100% of all matches. We’re aiming for at least 95%, which should be enough to see trends.

Also, we cannot guarantee your old bets placed before this release will have closing line (this depends on how old they are).

You will still be able to view the current “EV at bet placement” if you want, but it will not be the default.

Let us know what you think!

3 Likes
2

This is excellent news! Looking forward to it!

Did I understand correctly that BetTracker will show „normal“ EV and then you will try to replace it with CLEV. If that didn‘t work for some reason, the „old“ EV will just stay there?

Keep us posted on an ETA :slight_smile:

3

My idea is: We will show CLEV as default, always. You can switch to EV (EV at bet placement) with a click.

4

Great news!! Looking forward to this. When is “soon” …? This month or…?

5

This is one of our top priorities and will be added to our upcoming sprint on Monday. So hopefully within a couple of weeks! :slight_smile:

6

I am glad this is now here. I was worried that all my value was eroding before the event started (as my yield is always between 0 and 1%). Now I can see that the closing line is about half of the EV for me and that I have just been unlucky so far

1 Like
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Something is wrong here…

8

Vamius, how many bets does this graph include?

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CLV has not yet been updated for all users. So those numbers are not correct. CLV will be launched this week! Sorry for the confusion. Stay tuned.

1 Like
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Around 4k bets at the average 70 EUR stake per bet.

11

Now that closing line has been released, please post your updated chart @vamius

12

Here is an updated graph from the reports:

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and the one from betracker:

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Another problem is that i occasionally notice some bets being marked as “Win” by the tracker, while the games were actually lost. This happened just 60 minutes ago where the event (esports) was marked as won although the game didnt even finish yet. I changed it back to pending but the tracker marked is as “Win” once again. In the end the game was lost, but the tracker kept it as “Win”.

14

If you click on the statistic, you will see a tooltip with an explanation and a link. Flat profit explained.

Flat profit or unit profit is used when comparing users, betting systems or tipsters against each other, without taking bankroll size and betting strategy into account. It’s the profit you would have achieved if you used a flat staking strategy (also called fixed staking). This means betting one “unit” (1% of your bankroll) at each bet. A unit is different for every user, it can be €10 or €100 – since it’s a relative number you can easily compare the results. Note that betting using the Kelly criterion (a proportional staking strategy) will improve your profits compared to flat staking.