Data Analysis and bet control

Gabor · February 15, 2021, 5:02pm

Hi Everyone,

I open this topic to freely brainstorm about value betting based on basic statistical analysis. I want to keep the analysis as simple as possible and I know that my current data set is not representative because I have just started value betting a few days back.

The goal of this topic is twofold:

1.) I guess I am not the only one who won’t always have enough time to place daily 150-200 bets in long-term at the same time I definitely want to do this for a while to see how profitable this approach (value betting) is.

2.) Because of the nature of betting some variance will always hit our ROI. I believe some sort of control should be in place to mitigate the ups and downs due to variance. I don’t think that blindly play all bets will be a profitable strategy in a 1 year period, at least not for everyone. There are too many factors to play with and I will be very transparent with my data.

After a lengthy introduction let’s jump into the middle. In below pivot tables I separated the bets into two categories: type of sport and bookmaker. Yes, I did the leg work and checked all bets one-by-one to be able to pull these tables (1200 bets in total). Now we can have an idea how value betting (will) work(s) for different sports:

“Action” is a suggestion that I will follow based on the interpretation of the data.

As an outcome of these two pivot tables above what I would do today is:

Log all bets regardless the type of sport or bookmaker
Play bets (invest money) for the 7 bookmakers in Hockey, Soccer and Tennis

Appreciate if you share your thoughts with me. Is this a crazy idea? Do you see value in this?

Presocrate · February 15, 2021, 5:08pm

I wonder how representative these results are. If some of the categories rely on just a few wagers then I wouldn’t want to be drawing any conclusions at this stage. I recommend that you add the quantity of bets for each field and will be interested to see your results. I have been playing for 1 week and taking every bet. 1000 in, disappointing return so far

Presocrate · February 15, 2021, 5:09pm

Yield of 0.6 against an ev of 3.4

Gabor · February 15, 2021, 5:24pm

Thanks for the quick response.

Added the quantity for each field:

This is the current status of mine:

The idea is to accumulate 6-7000 bets by end of this month and then make a conclusion. I know that as of now the data set is not representative and what I am looking for is an approach or strategy that we can use when 10-20k bets are available. I’d like to do this continuously and adjust as per feedback down the road.