“How to Win Friends and Inluence People” 
Tortrashbin01 says it as it is! Ha Ha Ha
Ha-ha… actually I have read that book.
I think it might be prudent for RB to make available a value betting variance tool (should be relatively simple to put together a Monte Carlo simulator for this). This would give customers a better indication of just how ‘long term’ they have to think before they have shifted variance into statistical irrelevance. Simply, it takes A LOT of bets: you’re probably only out of the woods after about roughly 7,000 bets.
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Not sure what you mean by “out of the Woods”…I dont think you ever are. Ive placed > 28000 value bets…and you still see “variance” ie upturns and long , nerve-testing, down swings .
Over all the pain and angst Im still well in profit though…but newcomers often dont see beyond their 1st hundred or so bets.
Its defo a long term situation.
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Variance will always be there short term, day by day, week by week, but by 28000 bets you must be pretty close to your CLV when you zoom out, right?
yeah, just over it actually.
Precisely! This is perhaps too much information, but I’m just about to begin writing a book on the triangulation of mathematics, literary fiction, and a concept called the mathematical sublime, and a lot of the ‘hook’ for the book is about how utterly alienating the fidelity of mathematical concepts are to us.
You see it here all the time: all the people who jumped off before they gave this product’s inevitable long run time to kick in. The idea that sporting events, so seemingly unpredictable (which is why they are entertaining), bend to the will of large numbers. I feel for people who run afoul of variance at the beginning: mathematics’ ruthless efficiency must be seen to be believed. Bertrand Russell described mathematics as ‘a beauty cold and austere’ but, as my book will explore, there’s something terrifying about it too.
I might use RB as an example in the book. Either way, good luck all, and keep at it: sometimes the wheel turns slowly, but it turns.
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Good luck with your Book!
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I know it’s the boring answer, but the answer is just keep going with as much volume as you can.
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Ok.thanks.
probably close the month in negative or even (I won’t even repay the cost of the subscription). How and to whom should I ask for the second month for free? Thank you
Contact support, that’s what I did when it happened to me.
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CLV’s a bit low, some sports seem to be a bit more erratic than others longer out in my experience (basketball for example seems to be something you want to bet on close to start). Perhaps decreasing your TTS might help you retain the 5.22% average value you’re taking?
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this is the current situation after more than 1000 bets. What do you think? Suggestions since I can’t be positive (I still have some pending bets:)
this is the current situation. After recovering from an important DD and going into profit again I’m in DD. In your opinion where am I wrong and how can I improve?
This is my situation
If it is any consolidation I have had a pretty poor two weeks.
On the other hand I had an amazing (and I knew it could not be sustained) and freakishly good week prior. It is rough when it happens and it requires a certain mental fortitude to keep going.
Stay strong!
same here, lst week was a real TEST its hard to keep going through downswings , but if you dont----you cant get to an upswing!
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