Dissapointing profit graph so far

I’ve placed currently 700 bets, and I plan to reach 4000 at least. I’m concerned, however, about how the profit has never actually come close to the expected value. In fact, it has remained mostly the same. Normally I would expect to see some variance, e.g., the line going up the CLV then down then up, and so on; like this:

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Any help?

In a way your chart is not that surprising.
It seems you could have been luckier when starting: first part of the blue curve where CLV is really increasing strongly, but your profit stood close to 0. Given the low sample it’s really not an unlikely situation.
Now what is more concerning to me is that as of the 25th of october, your CLV is barely increasing. From that moment, because your CLV is not increasing (it’s flat), it’s not surprising to see your profit being flat as well.
This means your bet selection is probably not sharp enough → I would check the filters you are using: are you placing a lot of bet more than 24 hours in advance ? what is the minimum value at placement in your filter, maybe it’s worth pushing that one to a higher threshold

Do you mind sharing your filter setting ? that would help regarding the diagnostic.

And in any case, 700 bets is not a significant sample, so drawing conclusions now might actually not be that relevant.

I took a look and it seems you have the wrong currency on Sportingbet? This caused an enormous spike in CLV around Oct 23-25. You can change currency in Bookmaker options and then click “Change placed bets” to modify all.

Hi. Here are the screenshots:

What do you think?

Thanks!

Hi Simon.

I placed a few Sportingbet bets in CLP. (chilean currency) (1 USD=812 CLP) The rest of my bets are all in USD.

I could delete the sportingbets stakes; I just placed like 3 ?

If those three bets in CLP are not significant, you could indeed consider deleting to avoid polluting your chart (but beware there is no way to retrieve the bets afterward).

Forget about what I said regarding your CLV being falt, I can see with the other chart you provided it is going up steadily.

Overall your numbers look okay: 3.67% CLV is very good (I think avg is more around 2.5% CLV). Your luck rating is showing that you are indeed… unlucky ! The only thing you could consider changing is the filter on 48 hours. If you want to improve value consistency, you could consider lowering to 36 or 24 hours. I don’t think 48 hours is necessarily bad but it’s a bit more “risk open” as a strategy (because you leave more space for the odds to change after you placed your bet).

I’d say just keep going and the Law of Large Numbers will catch up for you :wink: 800 bets may look like a lot but it’s not significant at all !
I have made a quick simulation on 800 bets with 3.5% yield (your CLV) and a staking at 1% of bankroll: you still have around 19% chance of being negative.
After 1600 bets it becomes 11%
After 3200 bets it gets to 4.29%
After 6400 bets it gets to 0.92%
==> if you stick to your strategy, manage to keep a decent CLV (above 2%) and be disciplined in your bankroll management, you will make profit in the end !

Good luck !

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Thank you for your answer!

How do you make those simulations? Is there a special software? I’d like to try some different combinations myself lol

To delete a bet in the BetTracker, just click on it, then click Delete.
I see you managed to find this yourself!

You can type “sports betting calcs” on Google and check for the bet simulator :wink: very interesting to get an understanding of variance

the problem not every bookmaker made +ev in same odds range

how can i make the same calculations for my strategy?

y bet on everything papertrade all bookies then filter it out at least 10000 trades