Just want to quickly share my last couple of days, and where they fit in my whole graph. It can be demoralising when you suffer a downswing, but it’s really important when this happens to not become too emotional: you will have these along the way, you will also run like god!
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You do have a very aggressive set-up. High Kelly fraction AND high odds AND high TTS. 
Good advice on how to handle the emotional stress!
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In truth, I’ve often ignored the kelly’s advice as I have a new b365 account that’s life i wish to extend as long as possible, max stake 50£ on highest value (7+) and lowest odds (2 or under). I do have very high odds + TTS yes, but I am using those high odds + TTS specifically for two limited B365 and Unibet accounts (max I bet on anything 3 and over is 20£).
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Strength to you my friend. Let’s just wait patiently for that upswing. You seems to have cold nerves anyway, so I am not worried.
Here is an extract of my worst negative variance hit to date. You can read it in several ways:
- I was taking an awful hit of close to minus 2000€ (and that is with betting around 50-60€ on avg)
- Or understanding that I ran like a boss for a straight +2000 before, that was then right away corrected by the minus 2000 ^^
but of course we tend to see and remember the bad, so we focus on the the loss of 2K. The CLV then just reminds us that in the end we are on track. If you look further on the chart, you see that I could nicely catch up after some weeks.
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Yep, precisely! I come from the poker world, where variance is far more painful because a) there’s more and b) it’s harder to know if you’re making +EV decisions, so each decision can be, in a sense, taken personally.
One of the things about value betting at RB which is so good is that we can see if we’re +EV, and that’s all that matters in the long run, literally! (as my graph shows, I had a huge upswing well beyond the CLV, and the universe dictates that if I want to keep this up, some of it has to be given back!).
Good luck to all
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Hehe, we are on the same page 
had my poker time in the past too. And we know it can get to a worse cycle if you start tilting after experiencing negative variance. So indeed much harder to keep our head cool with poker.
Cheers !
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