Flat staking or Kelly? Flat better yield

I’ve been using kelly criterion (30%) since i started my valuebetting journey in January but I was wondering if I should switch to flat staking since my flat staking yield is almost 1% more then my actual yield. This is after more than 10000 placed bets.

What do you think?

I’m not sure, I often have my doubts about the stake sizing and will be following this.

I think the biggest doubt/complaint I have is how overvalued the first couple bets are.
I tend to keep my time to match start at less than 24hours (most commonly 16hours, but sometimes less). Occasionally due to travel, sleep, and other things - I end up with 0% bankroll at risk.

The first few bets I place (typically 4-5% value) , tend to be at the maximum bet allowed (1.5% bankroll is $60 max for me). After a few hours of placing bets, the software will suggest I keep my bets around $40 max down to $15min because of bankroll allocation.

OK great… but when one of those first couple miss at $60, I am technically losing 2 of my later value bets at $30 on average. Logically this doesn’t make sense as being a benefit. Even if they win… I’d rather keep the first 15% of my bankroll allocation at a flat rate, then fluctuate from there to what the suggested stake sizing is.

Give Flat Stake a try and if it suits you, you should be fine… Please note that if your settings do not work with Flat Stake, then it won’t work for any other staking system… GL!

Kelly is superior to flat staking.
Most likely you have AFOB selected and/or max staking limit at less than 2%. With those settings you are basically using a flat staking on a big part of your bets.

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