Hi - newbie here, so apologies if this has been covered but cannot find anything related in topics. Has anyone seen anything regards the level of variance that can be expected with RB, in terms of standard deviation from the norm and approximate N0 (number of bets before statistically should be in profit). Just trying to understand if variance can be guaged in terms of % of bankroll. So statistically you might expect between 20-40% of bankroll swings for example? If anyone can point in the right direction would be appreciated…
Hey mate, above is a link to a drawdown calculator from winner odds, i hope it helps. Welcome and GL.
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You’re a star - thanks
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I’m working on finishing my bet simulator / calculator where you can:
- Simulate (monte carlo) various staking strategies
- Check all kinds of statistics for your own bets
- Backtest your own bets with different strategies
- Compare your strategy to the average member, useful for adjusting your risk/reward/luck level for example.
Some of the metrics already implemented:
- Sharpe
- Expected st dev yield
- Actual st dev yield
- Z-Score
- P-Value
- S-Value
Hi Simon. Thanks - I would genuinely like to have access to something like that. I am familiar with EV v AV and variace, but my experinece so far has me questioning what sort of drawdown to expect, as since starting betting 4 days ago my variance has been 100% negative resulting in a loss of a fifth of my bankroll already (using recommended settings) WIll you make this availabe to everyone and will there be a cost?
Thanks