Hihg Variance after 580 bets

Hi Guys I need your help, after 580 bet is it normal this sort of variance? Then another question, if i will profit in long run more or less after how many bets the variance will be stable?


This is normal. 580 bets is still not very much. You need a bigger sample size of bets to reduce the variance. Please read more about why the volume of bets matters: https://www.rebelbetting.com/faq/p-value

Variance is particularly high when the sample size is small, for instance at the start of your value betting career.

The more bets you place, the variance will have far less effect and your results will over time move closer and align with your expected value. So, it’s important to see value betting as a long-term way to profit. The number of bets, as well as using a staking and max bet strategy, play an important role to reduce variance.

Here are some tips on how to reduce variance when value betting: https://www.rebelbetting.com/blog/how-to-reduce-variance-when-value-betting

Please also see your email inbox as I have just written to you as well. Please reply to my mail and let me know more about your settings and I’ll guide you further. :slight_smile:

Hi Ipalmieri.

I think you shouldn’t bet on higher odds than 2.5 and your variance will be lower. I am still learning and trying to find out what is the best way to reduce variance and push my profit up. I had last month one bad run. On the 24th of May i lost 7 games in a row and my profit dropped to $218 NZD. I stopped on the same day. On the 25th i was just thinking all day what actually i am doing wrong. I was driving car to work and thinking i was working at work and still thinking what i am doing wrong and what i should be doing differently. I was back to betting following day on 26th of May. If you see that your swing is going up and down just don’t bet on higher odds and you ll be fine. Just try it for one week and see. Pick the odds from say from 1.6 to 2.3 maybe 2.5 the highest. Or just change your strategy !! This software is a very powerful software and you have to make a money and profit !! one more thing ! Always you have to “analyze your bets” before you bet! Analyze bets! As i said before this is a very powerful software but you have to make a decision if you bet on game or not. But you may find a better way and different strategy for you how to make a money. I am betting odds from 1.6 to 2.8 and i am always analyzing the value of the bet before i bet on it. This is how i do.

now. when you get better you got your strategy and start winning then you have another problem like me last 7 days. A few limitations from bookie. i have 10 bookies and this week 3 bookies put limit on my bets. and i am done.

Marathon bet : i can bet on game max 0.32 cents ! hm…


32 Red : put limit on me after 3 games and i can bet max 9.28 eur

Unibet i can’t bet more than $ 9.28 NZD

Anyway : I bet 279 bets with ROI 18.48% - EV 3.63% and profit 643 NZD ! My Turnover is only 7.153 NZD
This software works but the main problem are bookies !

as you can see on screenshot i play with odds under 2.8

hope it will help



Hi Didi,
Thanks a lot for your advice, I have made some changes since this post, i am agree with you probably the system works, regard the bookies we all have the same problem, personally i will try until 2000 bets if i am not make a significant profit i will stop.
Many Thanks