How is the edge calculated

1

Hi

Can someone please show me exactly how the edge is calculated?

2

I’m sorry that probably nobody can, or will, share how a proprietary software calculates the true edge.
But it goes something like this : the current odds divided by the “true” odds"
So as an example 2.05 over 2.00 gives 1,025 which is 2.5% edge.
The difficult part is the “true odds” which can contain market bias, sudden changes , new information, prediction models and various sharp bookmaker odds and narrowing of the wig.
True odds only reflect probability… odds of 2.00 will still lose half of the time (and win half of the time).

1 Like
3

Thanks for your post.

Generally speaking if we are talking 1 hour before a game starts, if a soft bookmaker was offering a 1-2% arbitrage against pinnical, from what experienced with the software, this equates to 5-6% edge on “most” markets

When I say most markets like nba I have a 1% arb and it’s only 4.5% edge on the software

4

Honestly I do not understand your question.

5

Would you agree that a 1-2% arb odd on a soft vs pinnical would equate to a 4-6% arb on most markets?

1 Like
6

I neither agree or disagree. I have not put any thought into it. However I do not think that the Arb always only only comes from the soft bookmaker…