Ideal stake formulae

1

Hello everyone.

I wonder if someone can tell me what is the formulae to get ideal stake from parameters we all have:

  1. Current budget
    2 . Value bet %
  2. Kelly sizing (30%)
  3. Max stake (1.5%)
  4. Odd of match

I want to clearly understand how this works. When I get ideal stake of lets say £60 (max stake for current budget) when the odd is 1.90 and Value % is 5% and then £43 for the odd of 2.25 and Value bet of 4.2%.
I dont get it how all of this is calculate. I would rather to understand than just to blindly place bets.
Thanks

2

I’m not certain where you intend to wager €60, but if it’s not with a sharp bookmaker, your betting activity is likely to be restricted within a few days. Additionally, the total amount to bet is calculated using a formula that considers the overall percentage value and odds.

You can look up the “Kelly Criterion” for further information.

The Kelly Criterion method determines the ideal investment amount based on the likelihood and anticipated magnitude of a win or loss. Meanwhile, the Kalman Filter is used to approximate the value of unknown variables in a dynamic state, where statistical noise and uncertainties make precise measurements challenging.

1 Like
3

I know what is Kelly criterion.
My question was very straight. my max stake of £60 is based on 1.5% of my £4000 budget.
My betting activity with those stakes are not limited on bet365 for almost 4 months, so you are not right :slight_smile:

Anyone that can answer my question, please? I am not asking for advices, I am asking for someone who knows formulae for calculating ideal stake for certain match.

Thanks

4

The formula is the Kelly staking formula:

Stake %= ((Decimal Odds x % Chance Win) – 1) / (Decimal Odds – 1)

Decimal Odds = odds offered at bookies
% Chance Win = reciprocal of true odds eg. at 5% value, 1.9 odds (1/(1.9 * 1.05)) = ~55% = 0.55

That will provide you with stake percentage of 5% based on your numbers. Then 30% kelly would give you 1.5% (0.05 * 0.3) and finally 1.5% of £4000 = £60 which just happens to be your max exactly. If the value % was any higher the end result of the formula would be higher but would still be £60 stake due to your max settings.