New user here, in the process of setting everything up, and I want to make sure to make as few rookie mistakes as possible, so I’m interested in what you guys who have been doing it for while would do differently, if you could start all over again with the knowledge you’ve now gained.
Some examples:
Start mug betting first in new accounts to give the sportsbook the impression you’re a random gambler? If so, for how long or how many bets? Or just go all in straight away and ride it till the wheels fall off? What about sprinkling in some mug bets at a decent frequency for the entire time we have the account, and possibly off setting them on some exchange for a small loss, but hopefully longer longevity for the sportsbook?
Bet only the biggest markets, or go for any value you can find, even if it’s 3rd division Malaysian handball?
As a continuation from the last point, only betting on one or two sports at a single sportsbook, basically spreading the sports by sportsbook, or taking +EV bets from any sport at any sportsbook?
Bankroll management stuff. Not only in terms of what percentage we’re betting, but also how to spread out the bankroll between the different sportsbooks. More money at the higher volume sportsbooks like Bet365, and less money at smaller ones, instead of the same amount at each sportsbook seems like a smart move to me, but I don’t have the full picture yet.
How far would you go keeping your accounts from not looking alike? A different email, username, IP, VPN for every sportsbook, or is that unnecessary? Are there specific sportsbooks that report to each other, therefor getting you banned/restricted much faster? I’m guessing ones that are under a parent company, like for example the Betsson group (Betsson, Nordicbet, Betsafe, and a few others) all probably communicate with each other, but sportsbooks with licences thousands of miles apart from each other not so much, or doesn’t distance really matter?
I’m looking to start off with a bankroll of around EUR5000, but I can put in a bit more or a bit less. Ideally, how would you spread around that kind of money? I’ve read that bigger deposits can set off the alarms at certain sportsbooks, but there doesn’t seem to be a clear consensus on how much is enough to raise suspicion.
I’m located in Brazil and will be playing from there, but I’m actually European and also have access to the Dutch market, and probably/possibly the Italian and French market too. From the following list, which are the sportsbooks I should focus on/put more money into?: 1xBet, 32Red, 888Sports, Bet365, Betano, Betcity, Betclic.fr, Betfair, Bethard, Betsson, Black Chip Poker, Bodog/Bovada, Bwin.it, Everygame, GiocoDigitale.it, LeoVegas, MarathonBet, Novibet, Sportingbet, TigerGaming, TitanBet, Unibet, WilliamHill. There is a whole list of others I could access, but these are the ones that showed up in the filters.
Anything else I didn’t mention? I’m basically looking for things you wish you would have done, or things you wish you wouldn’t have done, in hindsight.
Bet365 will be your main book. Unibet and Betsson can each give a few 100€. It is probably a good idea to prep the accounts for a few months.
If you have 5000€ I would go with 1000 on B365, 500 on Unibet and 300 on Betsson.
When you start value betting you can set your bankroll to 3000 and bet accordingly to Kelly. If any of the books lose the bankroll then you can top it up. If bankroll grows you adjust accordingly.
Do not mess around with the default filter settings to much. I did initially and it did NOT turn out good!
Of all the books that you mentioned. B365 will be 80%, if not more, of your profit .
Due to money laundering and financial KYC regulations it is very difficult to be “anonymous” with the books.
If you have not bought the subscription yet I would suggest that you deposit and prep on the books and wait until summer and get subscription during the summer sale. Your accounts will last longer and your monthly cost will be lower. Unless you gonna do sure betting as well ,or use sharp books, then I would go for the starter version (not PRO).
It is a cost vs benefit calculation. There are not that many 7%+ value bets available and the long term profit depends on access to soft bookmakers and to minimize costs.
Thanks for the advice. I already started grooming my first account, will add some others the next few days. Probably gonna start valuebetting next month.
My only advice to you mate is; don’t let setbacks such as variance and mistakes hold you back, think longterm. I’ve been doing this for about 16 months and have made lots of mistakes (costing me more than 13k USD)and have also learned a lot, 13k is a small price to pay for what I’ve learned in the betting world so far, i want to go ahead and say don’t be afraid of taking risk but then risk factor varies from person to person.
When i started vbetting, i read every valuebetting article i could get my eyes on, watched lots of YouTube vids, ran simulations on different betting
calculators too (i even read 90% of articles on this forum at the time) this somewhat prepared me for the journey ahead, i set realistic expectations and put in time, lots of time and effort. Seek information my friend! Because information negates post like “does rebel betting(valuebetting)no longer work?” “I’m 30% down, i quit” etc. You could even develop your own strategies when you’re equipped with lots of information, take myself for e.g i developed a bball strat after reading extensively and even buying another bball strategy from someone more experienced than me and building on it. I’m still testing my own strategy but so far its not been so shabby, my first and only deposit of $500 currently sits at 25k at the book I’m using for testing after 1½ month of testing, though as a beginner i don’t expect you to get to this level overnight, it takes time, hardwork, perseverance and luck, don’t just be a valuebettor, research and hurdle knowledge and other bonuses like experience will find their way to you if you don’t quit.
So in summary, if i could start again then the only thing i would’ve done differently will be to seek more information and read about this topic and other related topics extensively. Currently i don’t do this though as I’m focusing on a select few strategies.
That’s some great advice LM, thanks for that. I have already read and watched a few dozen articles and videos on value betting, and will definitely continue to do so.
As a poker player, I understand what EV is and have already personally experienced how brutal variance can be, so I should be alright there. It also gives me a head start as far as creating accounts goes, and possibly getting my hands on accounts from abroad through some of my contacts.
Congrats on your own progress so far, you seem to be doing alright. I’m not sure if you’re saying you turned $500 into $25k in 16 months, or in a month and a half with your basketball strategy. If it’s the former, that’s a fine result, if it’s the latter, that would be crazy good. Either way, I’m interested in the strategy you found/developed. If you ever feel like sharing it, let me know. Doesn’t have to be for free of course.
In 1½ months mate, the deposit was around September…played around with some bets before testing and got lucky as bank grew to around 800/900ish, i then started testing in mid November with that amount and I’m very aggressive with staking, when bank got to 1500 i was staking 100.
I don’t wanna show the username for obvious reasons and I’ll keep updating on this journey. It feels surreal and deep down i have this lingering feeling that this could just be luck😅but for luck to carry on for almost 2 months of me placing bets everyday…
It hasn’t been smooth sailing though, I’ve gone from 22k to 15k in a night and gone from 17 to 13k, the variance is brutal and i have wanted to give up on multiple occasions but I’ll persevere and think longterm as any valuebettor should. Anyway, i hope you find this motivating.
For now, i dont plan on selling the strat as I’m not yet confident and I’m still testing extensively, will be sure to let you know when though.
Wow, really impressive. That is super aggressive bankroll management though, you must be really confident you have a big edge to stake that much. Would you be willing to tell aproximately how many bets it took to get from 500 to 25k? Also, will it work on any or most sites, or just the one from the screenshot? (which I don’t recognize by the way, but I’ve just started opening accounts here and there)
I hope it works out for you, and if it does, don’t be shy to share your knowledge, if it can be made worth your while obviously. Good luck, and keep us updated on your progress!
Yes it should work on 80% of books offered by rebel. I think i have placed less than 1500 bets so far, its inplay so tracking bets is kind of hard, will do at end of testing though.
At first i was conservative with staking but realized i shouldn’t as my funds didn’t stay locked in games for long, so turnover was the main reason i started staking aggressively.
@Lm10 I dont understand. How are you able to make 27k $ without getting limited or banned? I see dozens of posts here where people get gubbed after like a couple hundred $.
Or is your strat concerning sharps/exchanges?
I dont use any software, personally developed strategy. The bookie shares same inplay lines with stake.com in Basketball, that is all i can say about this bookmaker mate, sorry.
