Improvements to recommended bet size

Adjust bankroll for open bets

We’ve just enabled a new feature for all ValueBetting web users to improve the automatic stake size calculations: When calculating the recommended stake size, we now take your open bets into account.

You might notice your recommended stake size will slowly decrease the more open bets you have. This is done so as to better maintain your risk level (set by the bet sizing percentage, also called fractional Kelly criterion).

An example to explain why we implemented this:

  • Let’s say you bet 1% of your bankroll at the start of the day. This is calculated by the Kelly criterion to the optimal stake size when balancing risk and profit.
  • You then place 99 more bets that are open simultaneously, all using 1% stake size.
  • Your last bet, using the last 1% of your bankroll, can hardly be said to balance risk and profit. It’s almost as you’re betting 100% of your bankroll! (Luckily, around half your open bets will hopefully win).

This feature is important if you often bet a majority of your bankroll each day.

On the other hand, if you only bet 10% of your bankroll every day, you will not notice much difference. The feature can easily be turned off in Options, just disable “Adjust for open bets”.

What you need to do

  1. Make sure your bankroll is correct (under Options). You still need to adjust your bankroll regularly, but not as often as before.
  2. Decide if you want to keep this feature enabled. If so, there is nothing you need to do, it’s activated by default.

Read more

For more details, and comparison charts, read more about the Kelly criterion with multiple simultaneous bets.

2 Likes

Very nice! You can also make the same with the bankrol, to have a checkbox and if enabled to caculate it by adding the starting bankroll + the profit. That way we will not have to change the bankroll ever again! :slight_smile:
To tell you the truth I was tiered altering it all the time…

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Yes, automatically updating your bankroll with your profits is something we already have planned to add. :+1:

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and also a withdrawal + deposit option, so if someone decide to withdraw or deposit it will add to bankroll but wont affect the stats. Now for example if I want to withdraw I have to reduce my bankroll, thing that will ruin the stats

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Would also love to have updates on each bookie.

Lets say I have 3 bookies:
Bet365: 100 euro
Unibet: 100 euro
Bwin: 100 euro

That each bookies starting bank updates after every bet.

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I don’t think, this update is a good idea… why ?
because in long term, your EV/ROI/… will be muuuuuch smaller

instead of decreasing stake, you should do something like “max opened 100 bets at the same time” or rather do not do it

@pooler, we implemented this feature to keep the selected Kelly criterion risk level better while having many open bets at the same time. It’s recommended for most users, but won’t be suitable for everyone. It’s easy to turn off!

You can also use it in combination with an increased fractional Kelly percentage (from 30 to perhaps 50%) and an increased max bet size.