Hi. I’ve noticed some seeming inaccuracies with the value %, especially on higher odds. Here’s one from just now:
It says 14.7% value, which would be outrageously good. Yet, when I go on oddsportal and compare the odds, it just does not seem accurate. If I were to bet on rebel’s recommended line, and then on the highest odds of the opposite (Pinnacle), I would get a combined payout of only 99.18%. And this seems to be a frequent issue with higher odds. Almost every time the value% goes above 10%, the odds are also very high (typically 5.0>), and the return for betting on both options is below 100%. It also seems to happen a lot with draws on 1x2 bets (super-high value, but barely or not even good enough to make an arb).
Am I right in pointing this out or is there something I’m overlooking?
It is correct that surebets show arb when one side is over estimated.
In this case if you compare 3.90 offer by svenskaspel against Pinnacle and asianodds offer on 3.20. This shows value, because you are getting lot better odds than asian books