Hi. I’ve noticed some seeming inaccuracies with the value %, especially on higher odds. Here’s one from just now:
It says 14.7% value, which would be outrageously good. Yet, when I go on oddsportal and compare the odds, it just does not seem accurate. If I were to bet on rebel’s recommended line, and then on the highest odds of the opposite (Pinnacle), I would get a combined payout of only 99.18%. And this seems to be a frequent issue with higher odds. Almost every time the value% goes above 10%, the odds are also very high (typically 5.0>), and the return for betting on both options is below 100%. It also seems to happen a lot with draws on 1x2 bets (super-high value, but barely or not even good enough to make an arb).
Am I right in pointing this out or is there something I’m overlooking?
I can’t see odds from svenskaspel in your oddsportal screenshot?
Odds portal doesn’t have Svenskaspel odds but the screenshot was taken at the exact same time.
It is correct that surebets show arb when one side is over estimated.
In this case if you compare 3.90 offer by svenskaspel against Pinnacle and asianodds offer on 3.20. This shows value, because you are getting lot better odds than asian books
1.33 : 3.7 is a 97.83% return if you bet on both outcomes
1.33 : 3.9 is only a 99.18% return if you bet on both outcomes
if there is value in the bet then surely is only a negligible amount, where is the supposed 14.7% in value coming?
Are you sure you’re not in the Value Betting tab? And not Arb
The calculations are correct, I can assure you.
You seem to be using arbitrage calculations for calculating value?Here is a good article how to do basic value bet calculations.
We’re also take betting bias (favorite-longshot bias) and market efficiency into account.