Hello. I hope you are well. I was looking at past conversations in this group and came across something about using the kelly or flat stake criteria. Well, I want to give my opinion on that. I prefer to use flat stake. The reasons are:
Since I bet the same amount on each bet, I reduce the probability of losing a good percentage of my bankroll when the big bets are lost. If you had used Kelly for a + 9% edge bet with odds of 1.60, the software would probably suggest betting a large amount. Now, if a losing streak causes me to lose these types of bets, obviously it will affect my bank and it will be very difficult to recover the lost money.
When you are betting on value bets, you won’t know if your bet really has value until the start of the match and the closing odds are settled. Of course value bets beats the closing line almost 80% of the time (or so I read) but again, it is not certain that the initial placed edge will be the same as the closing edge. So sometimes if a bet has +9% starting edge, it will end with -9% or maybe +5.4%.
I also read from some forum that value shrinks by 40% on average from bet placement. So if you place vb with 2% avg edge, your expected yield will be 1.2%, which is good if you have a large daliy turnover. So It doesn’t matter if I use flat or kelly stake, I should end up with profit since I have a +EV right? Well that’s what your analysis tool shows.
Of course, using Flat Stake has downsides. You must be aware of them. Personally, I would use a flat bet with a minimum initial edge of + 5% and odds less than 3. I would like an opinion from someone who has experience using Kelly or Flat Stake. This is my humble opinion, thank you ! Flat stake when using value bets! Is flat stake good for value betting?