I started value betting in October and more than half my bets lost. I took a month off and returned in December and more than half my bets have lost. I havent experienced a single day in profit since i started. Its like 1 step forward, 1 and a half steps back. I lost £500 on one day but has slowly moved up and does not allow me to move past -£180. Win win, lose lose every day.
I am noticing a few trends. The value bets are not predictions of who is likely to win, rather just odds closer to the real value and would be worth more if the result lands in those parameters. So betting against Real Madrid and backing Getafe is a big mistake if you’re paying attention but the value is better if Getafe won. That’s just a hit and hope and makes me question all the other sports markets that I don’t know enough about that I am placing bets on. The bets don’t take actual probability into account. And so if the bookies go on a long streak of not giving close to true value in line with actual probability then the software simply wont pick it up and we will lose again and again. The bookies could easily identify those doing value betting and adjust the odds in their favour so you never win. This is a worry. I did wonder as I have been contacted by 4 bookmakers in just the last week where they have identified me as a value bettor. Betting on second division Israeli football matches will do that! But they haven’t stopped me from placing bets. Just not giving me freebies. They know they can make money from me if they adjust the markets I am betting on in their favour. It wouldn’t be difficult for them to get access to rebel betting software and play with it. After all, the modern trader behind these sites are former bettors! They know what they are looking for. Just like the best person to have on your fraud team is a former fraudster. Frank Abignail springs to mind.
It might make more sense to go for bets that have a high probability instead of value then if the software only picks up value and not chances of the bet winning. If low probability like -0 on a championship game then leave it. A championship game won’t end in 0-0 there will be a score.
There is a higher value if Getafe beats Real Madrid but it is not probable. This is a losing bet all day long and placing bets just for the sake of it might well be the biggest mistake we make as value bettors.
The system often gives a choice of bets for the same event. A selection of Asian handicaps for instance. A basketball game may have a few different bets with differing values. Placing a bet on a game with u157 points is better value than u178. But for a typical basketball game to achieve less than 157 points is improbable. There are 3 attacks on a basket every 10 seconds in a basketball game. Plus the timer stops constantly. 5 minutes on the clock could be closer to 12 mins in reality. Giving more chances. And the points can differ depending on if it is a free throw or where the ball was nettet from on the court. Just because the bet is higher value does not mean it is likely to occur. That is a greedy bet in a way when you could play safe and bet on under 179 and have less value but a higher chance of winning.
I am not a fan of just “placing more bets” based on these observations. If you know nothing about sports and expect to make money then there will be dark days ahead. I know about some sports but I am not familiar with the bets that are made available vs probability especially in tennis and lower leagues. There is no snooker, rugby or MMA which is surprising. It is the same formula over and over and this just wouldn’t be difficult for the bookies to see the patterns of their users betting on the unders/ overs or Asian lines markets.
Wouldn’t it make sense to have the software take into account probability as well as value?
I see that when a bet has lost its value that the bookie has changed the odds. It is only slightly less value but represents probability of the team winning. So wouldn’t it be more sensible to place that bet and take a small win? But the software doesn’t advise placing a bet on this. Why? The bookie recognises there is a higher likelihood that the team will win but the value has lowered more than what the software can recommend. Taking lots of small wins is the key to value betting from what I can see.
I recognise that it is Christmas and there are less valuable bets but there are still lots of games on. I am getting very few bets to choose from. It could be my settings as I have a min value set to 6 and max 15 but I have adjusted my game plan and not placing just any bet. I am experiencing a big downswing and can’t see this being valuable if I continue my original strategy.
What does anyone else think?