Some bookers already limited me, but not the most important ones. I’m currently thinking if I should keep placing smaller bets when I’m limited and can’t place the full bet? It is messing up the staking a bit, but if I try to keep those wrong-sized bets in 10-20% area it shouldn’t be too bad?
Earlier I also changed max odds from 2,90 to 3,10 to show more opportunities and it helped, but maybe it also increased the variance too radically? I lowered it again to 3,00 for now. Do you think there’s a big difference between 2,90 and 3,10 for example? I now feel like 2,90 is not there accidentally (given it’s not a round number so it’s oddly specific).
Probably this is still mostly just bad luck though, and not even crazy bad? Still it kinda feels lame, and I’m afraid they’ll limit me before even profiting and I’m the first person to lose on +EV betting
Initially started with 1800€, but have added some more funds. (It’s pretty much mandatory when using a wide variety of bookers, because sometimes the accounts will simply get emptied, which is ok.)
Will see how the next 1000 go, I’ll keep this thread updated. It is pretty fun to be value betting if you have a certain type of personality and interests – or at least it would be with some decent results, but I’m sure they’ll follow.
Your CLV is positive so you just need to keep going. I know that it is easy to write and say but that it can be mentally tough and challenging.
I am personally not worried to have a high odds limit since I have a bankroll that can take the variations. Since I am soft limited on the bookie I am currently using I need more bets - and the hose bets are profitable but come with higher variance.
My short time setting is as below - not the Max odds at 7.0
Thanks!
Oh but that is super high max odds The downswings can be crazy, although I don’t think there are that many opportunities with odds higher than lets say 5,00 or are there?
That also makes me think have you ever tried on value betting on doubles/2-accas? Would maybe give an account more lifetime, and still it should work the same way, just variance is higher?
Anyway getting close to 2000 bets and things are looking a bit better for me so that’s nice. Keeping the thread updated!
Variance is always frustrating! It seems good that you limit the max odds to reduce it and you may also want to consider spreading your bets between markets etc.
I’ve been doing doubles/triples on some accounts and the ROI is definitely better which makes sense because you are compounding the edge but I wouldn’t do it on any other bookmaker than Bet365 or Unibet because you need a lot of bets to get high turnover and those have the most bets by far
Unibet limit after a day no matter what and Bet365 limits are so random, sometimes an account last only 2 days and sometimes up to a month and I can’t say for sure if Parlays make a difference or not it just seems random to me
Unibet are very fast on limiting players, I have an account with them and they kicked me out in a few days, also red32 and 10bet. Many of them won’t last for more then 3months no matter how you behave… and for me, the best that I have found for UK are BET365, WILLIAMHILL and SKYBET. These are the best and if you try to take care of them, it will last you longer. Warm them up (every day) for about a month and then try to place some “normal” bets form time to time for as long as you go with the value betting journey (I am UK based).
3000 bets in and it’s been going well, although I am getting limited already on some big bookers.
And there is a funny pattern, the CLV line just can’t be broken
That’s bad luck but you need to keep going to overcome it. Check simulator like this: Value betting simulator
Most of the time after 1000 bets you’re in profit, but in many cases you’re not. That’s variance.
I’ve used these bookers (this is also the approximate priority order): bet365, LeoVegas (and clones, but they limited quickly), BetRebels (and clones like Campobet, Betinia, Ninja Casino and Wildz), Betsson Groups sites (soft limited fairly quickly), 888sport and clone Mr Green, Betfair Sportsbook, TonyBet.
Also couple of others but didn’t have any results with them.
The downswings can be crazy, although I don’t think there are that many opportunities with odds higher than lets say 5,00 or are there?
Would maybe give an account more lifetime, and still it should work the same way, just variance is higher? 
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