I am value betting for about +2 weeks now and I would like to share my results with you - maybe some of you guys are doing better and I am open for every input
Starting Bankroll: 2000€
Kelly 30% and 1,5 - 2 % Stake
Odds: 1,50 - 2,70
Percentage: 3% - 30%
My first days have been great - maybe too great because I got limited at almost every bookie i was betting on. Profit at that point was around 400€
Reality hit me hard and i was losing (small ups, bigger downs) from this point but i think thats normal with just a few hundred bets placed.
I have some years of betting experience and variance is a normal thing.
However, i changed odds to 1,20 - 2,30 at this point and value % to min. 4,50
Sometimes i turn it back to 3% to get more bets. specially during the week or when i have a lot of time to take more bets.
Nearly 1000 bets now but results are not that great… 90% of my bets are placed with bet365 now.
Here are my results. I would be happy if you guys have some tips for me.
Update after 1300 bets.
I would be happy If someone could help me how to reduce variance.
Again up to 380 profit in 1-2 days and then back to start (+30€) in 1-2 days.
Biggest loss is from soccer.
Thanks for your input!
Do you have different filters for different sports?
place another thousand bets and see more of what to do.
Update after 1600 bets and 1 month value Betting:
Last weekend i didnt geht much bets because of vacation.
However, things turned around and I am standing at 700€ Profit at the moment
I think you should widen your odds range a little bit, for example 1.1-3.0
Thanks for your input. Variance hit me hard in the beginning. Thats why ich changed odds to max 2,10.
So you think open odds to max. 3,00 will increase profit a lot?
Maybe but basically all sports have more or less the same setup… By the way, I’m not having much fun in the last couple of weeks lol
Update after +1900 bets.
Didnt follow kelly that strictly because I always had big downs after winning streaks so i went with 25€ flat stakes for a while.
However, im very happy with my results so far
Happy to see your success. Will you work on optimizing it?
Thanks for posting this, it’s an excellent example of keeping discipline, good bankroll management, reflection on past results and going for more volumes before whining about value betting not working. Keep up the good work, curious to see how this evolves in the future
Hey @whitesmoker, glad to see your nice recovery after not so great-looking beginning. How are you doing so far? GL
After Season break ( end of May) i bought the Summer sale pro subscription (1 year for the price of 6 months) and i started again with fresh stats and bankroll of 1000€.
Here are my stats so far:
rocky ride in July …but proves sticking with it works…any sports/markets disabled? ( I simply lose everytime I switch Baseball back on)
Cheers, and well done!