My thoughts/review after 1300 bets (80% roi, 5.4% yield)

Firstly I would like to think the rebelbetting team for this software, the system works and I’ve made a tidy profit. I will be taking a break from value betting for a while, because it has been quite a bit of effort to be constantly firing off bets all day and balancing this with my regular work. I thought it would be helpful to write a review/ give a few insights on my results + thoughts on how the user experience could be improved.

Firstly, as you will see from the below my results have been far from linear. After about 750 bets i’d made a grand total of £50 profit from an initial investment of £1k. At the time it felt like if put a lot of effort in for little reward.

On one particularly poor day I lost around 20% of my starting bankroll Shortly after a pep talk from the support here things picked up and I saw a steady profit.

This may also be in part due to me tweaking my settings to try to reduce variance. I did this by copying data out the bet tracker into excel and looking at where I was/wasnt making money, e.g. i was losing most of my money at odds over 2.5 so I stopped betting on these unless the value was reasonably high (mostly 5 or 6%+).

My best markets were win & asian handicap and best sports were football and esport. I stopped betting on baseball/over under fairly early on.

My main advice would be to try not to constantly check the tracker or follow individual bets, I was guilty of doing too much of this! Focus either on daily profit/loss or groups of 50 or 100 bets to track your progress. I did eventually start doing this myself in excel:

You will also get banned from bookmakers - I wasnt bothered about being selective about the leagues or matches i bet on so may have been restricted quicker than I could have been. This didnt bother me much as I dont see myself value betting for years anyway. In a weird way being banned from bookmakers actually lets you know that what you are doing is profitable!

Finally some things that I hope may be improved by the time I resume value betting:

  • Placed odds vs pinnacle/ betfair closing odds - If i know my average odds placed is 2.02 and my average closing odds are 1.95 then I know i should be profiting in the long run.
  • Ability to download your raw data - unless i missed something this isnt possible? I had to copy and paste data out the tracker and this omits a lot of important info
  • More access to overall combined user results - it would be good to see things like relationships between odds, value and the variance/profit they create using real rebelbetting data. Also yields for combinations of sports/bet types.
  • A statistical significance calculation in the reports section. When i contacted the support they were able to give me the probability that my initial results were just unlucky, perhaps this could be included as standard for users to see.

Congratulations, well done :slight_smile: And thanks for some very good suggestions:

  • You’re right about closing line, it’s one of the most important proof that you’re doing something profitable. We already have it internally, and are working on adding closing line reports for everyone. Right now 88.7% of all logged beat the closing line, which is fantastic.
  • Adding the possibility to download your data might be something we’ll add in the future. But we’d rather build the functionality you’re missing - you shouldn’t feel the need to use Excel at all. So we need more detailed reports mainly. Any suggestions are welcome, what should the reports include? (Excel prototypes are even better).
  • Summaries and statistics for ALL placed bets (from all users) is something we’ll be adding for our more advanced users, definitely.
  • We will also think about how we can make it easier to understand variance and statistical significance. Especially for new users that have only placed a few hundred bets. It’s hard to explain in a short text, so perhaps a visualization is best.

Wow congratulations for your great result. CMIIW but you cannot judge a markets performance if your sample are small (i think 500 is very small sample size)