I am a former poker player, at the moment I deal with investments, for a few months I am trying with value bets.
After about 3000 bets the results are what you see -
do you have any advice in particular?
i use bet365 , betclic e william hill and bet in asia e asian odds as a broker , do you have other books to suggest that they can also be used from Italy?
Ciao puoi usare Bwin e gioco digitale sono 2 cloni,ma hanno u po’ di valute bets.anche io sono in Italia e sapevo che noi italiani non possiamo usare bet in Asia e Asia odd
per delle restrizioni.come hai fatto ad avere questi broker?ti hanno chiesto documenti particolari?grazie
hi lck121 , I don’t like bwin and gioco digitale. I’ve used them before with surebets and they are very quick to limit accounts, as for bet in asia and asian odds I made a normal registration, for asian odds then you need opera on your computer, which gives you incognito for free the vpn.
hello, thanks for the comment, as I said in the main post I also deal with finance and mached betting, what I understood, especially in the value or in the casino is that to have a return similar to your expected value you need really many events, so 700 bet are really few, I am currently arrived at about 3700 bets, with a profit of about 700 euros against an expected value of 3350 euros, I think that to get close to the expected value I should play at least 10k events
I also use the pro version and had a really bad start. 10k bankroll and was at -5k first 10 days.
I was still in the negative after a month and RB added a free month to my subscription (thank you RB). A few days later I was in the black!
Some weeks were really good and some not so good. At times it seemed as if I would never be able to get to the CLV line or above it.
Now, 4000+ bets later, I have surpassed it.
IMHO I do not like to use the option to adjust for “open bets”. I consider it to be superior to limit the stake by reducing the Kelly Criterion instead and increase the max stake.
With a max stake of 1,3% you are almost never using the Kelly… You end up using the max stake.
thanks for the advice, since I do a lot of mached betting I try to always use the same size in my bets, so I change the bets slightly, thanks for your testimony, I think that in the long run it is very profitable to use this method of betting, although as I told you at the moment I am very under EV, in the long run the opposite could also happen, good luck with everything
Your staking strategy can be an area that can explain a part of the … let’s call it sub-optimal results you have so far.
It is important to understand the Kelly staking and deviating to far can negatively impact your betting.
Stake = Optimal size of stake
Decimal Odds = Odds offered by bookie
% Chance Win = Estimated probability of bet winning (that’s what we pay RB to find out. You can check some of your bets yourself with the help of a sharp bookmaker like Pinnacle)
Using the Tottenham example above, betting on Spurs to win at evens (decimal odds of 2.0) with a 53% probability and £500 bank would result in the following calculation:
Stake = ((2.0 x 0.53) – 1) / (2.0 – 1) x 100
Stake = ((1.06 – 1) / 1) x 100
Stake = 6% of bank or £30 if bank is £500
A couple of points for consideration when using the formula. If you have a zero edge – i.e. your probability is the same as the bookies’ – then the Criterion states that you should not bet. Similarly, if you have a negative edge – i.e. your probability is lower than the bookies’ – then you could either avoid the bet or you could consider laying it. It is also recommended that you don’t bet more than the calculated Kelly stake as this is known to negatively affect your bank in the long term.
Me too I’ve used many Bet365 but as you know in Italy since last year Bet365 usually ban really quick. Tried with Sportmarket and Betfair exchange and I wasn’t able to place many bets per day and most weren’t matched. How many bets are you able to place with bet in Asia and Asian odds per day? Thanks