Negative First Month

Hello everyone,

I started 1 month ago, have been able to place a little over 400 bets, I’ve read that I have to reach at least a few thousands to get better results so I’m still going with it.
Nevertheless I am sending my current stats, my settings, and would like to request for advice whether I should change something.

I mainly use bet365 and bwin, I have limited bookmakers in my country so I am sticking with those and sometimes sportingbet.



It’s just to small of a sample size to say anything about your stats really. Check out the below 20 random simulations with your stats:

Then see how 20 new simulations look like with the same stats, but with 10 times more bets:


Thanks @Bjorn.
I’ll keep going, hopefully I’ll move to the upper stats soon :slight_smile:
I am now at 500 bets with -750 profit, looking forward to the turnaround.

is this value
or sure bet?

Value obviously.

I don’t think you can go negative with sure bet :stuck_out_tongue:

why do people then make
value if sure is the better thing?

With sure betting it’s guaranteed that you will get limited from bookmakers, limiting your long term profits.
Also, it’s harder to apply as you need many bookmakers to find sure bets.

but I thought there are enough
bookies, which never limit?
and that there are tecniques
that bookies will not recognize
you as an arbitrage?

I’ve never used it, and I can’t answer that cause I’m in Greece with limited bookmakers. I guess the only way to confirm what you say is to try it, but as your bankroll grows it will be inevitable to get limited by sure betting.

Generally speaking you shall use soft- and sharp bookmakers respectively for arbitrage. Soft bookmakers will limit your account for sure. I don’t think you can be profitable in arbitrage by using sharp bookmakers only. There might be tricks that could buy some time for you and I’m not aware of it :slight_smile:
It is relatively easy to recognize if a user is playing arbitrage or not.

I’m 2 months into arbitrage betting now and have been limited by 4/27 bookmakers available to my region through the software. To add is that there are many more bookmaker copies available not listed in the program.

My thought is that value betting might get you detected faster since one value betting might place 10+ bets a day on a soft bookie where all of the bets somehow managed to be placed on higher odds than the closing odds. Compared to an arbitrage bettor who might place 1-2 bets on a soft bookie a day but with much larger stakes.

I have a different experience. When I started arbitrage Bwin limited my account after 3 or 4 days.
I have been placing value bets for the 5th month and I was never limited. My turnover is more than 60k CAD and have 20-35 value bets every day on average.

If you keep your bets on a reasonable level and there is no pattern of your bets, don’t think you get restricted fast. Lots of soft bookmakers don’t tolerate arbitrage and you can get limited fast.

My reason is sure bet have limited.