After around 4000 bets on football and Asian handicaps my profit is still negative and it’s a bit frustrating. Is there something wrong with this market? I tried to call even with an edge greater than 4 and with bets very close to the start of the event but I wouldn’t have earned the same
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Simply just unlucky.
Out of curiosity could you send screenshot of your filters and options
Edge > 3,5%
Odds 1,4-2,5
TTS 24h
CLV is still positive but it seems really strange to me that after more than 4000 bets the results are still null. I also downloaded the tracker and made some analysis in excel, I would not have been profitable even with a higher Edge or betting much closer to the start of the match. Fortunately it goes well with tennis because otherwise in these 6 months I would not have even paid back the cost of the subscription.
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Yeah I agree it is super unlucky. What is your kelly% and max stake?
Kelly 40% Stake max 1%
oh you have pretty high kelly setting and very low max stake, doesn’t that lead to you basically betting 1% of bankroll on every single bet no matter the % of EV? That is not ideal because you want to in general be betting more when the edge is bigger.
If you want to copy my settings then increase the max odds to 4, TTS to 48h, Kelly 25% and max stake 3%, and ofcourse adjust for open bets off. Those have been my settings for a while now.
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filtering with excel even if I had bet more on bets with more value I would still be at a loss. I only use 1% because during the weekends I also have 150 open bets. With maximum odds of 4 don’t you have much more variance?
a bit more but don’t think the downswings are too much different than using the default settings, however I think some of the best value bets are in the 3-4 odds range personally.
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Then I try to raise the maximum odds. It would be interesting if you have a ro subscription to see the statistics of high odds bets
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I´ve tossed asian handicap since it has such downside swing on my gains. Over/Under oder Wins are far more consistent. I feel you, especially you made the most turnover in Asian Handicap and lost much.
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I hope it’s not because I have the starter and not the pro.
Close to my settings!
I love it.
By excluding the AH market you will lose a lot of bets - and they are profitable!
