Not profitable after nearly 2000 bets

24h on weekends is way too long. 10 or 12h should be just fine and with benefit of more accurate CLV/value and flipping of bankroll. Weekdays max 24h.

@Lm10 and @totrashbin01 thanks for taking time to reply, guys. Things already picking up. Do you bet on all sports, like esports too?
I have also turned off “Over/Under” for a couple months now because a lot of ppl have had bad things to say and it was making me a loss also.

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Yes mate i bet on everything. It’s not easy making up your mind to bet on everything especially when you’re seeing some sports having negative yield on member results. However, the mindset i bet with is; if pinnacle (or whichever sharps used for value calculation) is confident enough to offer this market then I’m confident enough to take it against a soft book. If you must, then just tweak the settings but don’t disable the sport. Having this mindset isn’t all, you have to go the extra step of getting down a good amount of bets.

With this approach, I don’t think I’ve had a negative yield with any sports so far.

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Even if I agree with @Lm10 I only bet on Soccer, Basket, Tennis and e-sport purely due to practical reasons. I do not have to maneuver and look for correct bet/market on the odd sports. This way I find it to be a more efficient use of my time.

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@Lm10 and @totrashbin01 Been absolutely killing it since i made the adjustments you guys suggested. The biggest differences were opening up to all sports and particularly lowering max odds from 3.3 to 2.5.
So just a big thank you again for taking the time to help the new guys out. When you stand at the Pearly gates and St Peter asks what you have done for others in your life? You can say: “I was a moderator on the Rebel betting forum”. And St Peters eyebrow’s will shoot up in surprise and admiration, and the gates will swing wide open :wink:

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Haha😅

You’re welcome mate, glad we could help. Most thanks to @totrashbin01 he’s the donđŸ„‚

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To bad that I am an atheist.

Hey
 It is a forum and we help each other out.

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well thats upswing is all you boys. :slight_smile: Feel proud of yourselves

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Enjoy the upswings but also be prepared for the downswings
 It is all pat of value betting.

@totrashbin01 and @Lm10 hope you guys are well. One quick question about “Value Disappeared”. Sometimes i put the bet on and then come back to log it, but it says on the Rebel betting page in red “Value Disappeared” even tho the odds are still there. Lets 2.25. You can go back to the bookie and they are still at 2.25. So i presume that means the value is no longer there even the odds technically are the same? Because usually when it says value disappeared it’s because the odds have dropped to say, 2.00 and its no longer a value bet. Hope you catch what I’m saying.
It’s important, because if it’s the first reason, i will go back on Bet365 and cash out my bet straight away when it says that. Thanks in advance.

I still take the bets if the odds haven’t changed. My clv is still soaring so I’ve had no reason to second guess this bets.

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I agree with @Lm10
Also, the time it takes to figure out if the soft bookmakers odds have changed or the sharp odds have moved you could have placed two or thee new bets. Also, the “value dissapeared” you see only for a few seconds - from the time you placed the bet until before you logged it - , what about the hours that will pass before the event actually starts? The same thing can happen there but you will be unaware of those changes.

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@Lm10 and @totrashbin01 Hello boys. Thanks for your last messages. So since that last upswing on June 4th it’s been back to very poor results. I’ve got all the suggested settings, a fully functioning Bet365 account, a large average stake of £25- and yet i have lost money for 3 months now and over 2000 bets. What on earth is going on? Have i just got dog shit variance luck? The only reason I’ve kept going these last 3 months is the mantra “just place more bets”
but at some point i’m just wasting my time. I would have earned more working in Costa Coffee.
Any feedback much appreciated.
(my kelly is 30% and max stake 1.5%)




Sorry to hear that. My main betting bookie is B365 and I am close to my ATH.
Sure
 there are som down-swings but month-on-month it is up.
On June 4th I wrote in this thread “Enjoy the upswings but also be prepared for the downswings
 It is all pat of value betting.” That still holds true. If your CLV is up you will be profitable.
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You will lose out on a lot of bets if you go with 5% min value.
5% is fine for TTS around 24 hours but for events 3h out 3% works.
The shorter the time to TTS the less value is required.
Besides, your profit is almost exactly on the CLV. Your flat yield is higher then your actual yield so I suspect you have max value set around 1 or 1.5%. IMHO this will limit the suggested stake too much.

Yes, my max stake is 1.5%. But I’m averaging almost £30 a bet so my stake isn’t that restricted. Bet more than that and gubbing is more likely.
I’ve only recently upped my min value to 5% from 4.5% to stop the bleed. In the last week literally , so it’s unlikely to be that.

Both a limit of 4.5 and particular 5% will restrict the number of bets. At the end of the day, you are at your CLV, so I see what you wish for but not what you, realistically, should expect.